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Good news about housing and stocks lifts Florida’s consumer confidence

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Aug. 26, 2009 – Rising housing prices, stock market gains and the lack of any new setbacks in the national economy boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 70 this month, according to a new University of Florida (UF) survey.

“We had anticipated an increase in consumer confidence in August based on what appeared to be an unjustifiable two-point drop in July following what was already a two-point decline the previous month,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “While the economic environment is by no means bright, the decline in July seemed unsustainable given the lack of any very bad economic news and some encouraging signs in Florida’s housing market and the stock market.”

Three of the five components in the index rose, one fell and one stayed the same. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 43, still only four points above its all-time low of 39. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 73; perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose eight points to 80; and perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 84. The only component to drop was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which fell five points to 72.

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Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in 2Q 2009

2Q existing-home sales rise in most states, says NAR

ORLANDO, Fla. – Aug. 12, 2009 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 23 percent in second quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 43,125 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 35,008 existing homes sold. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to FAR.

Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the second quarter rose 29 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the third consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.

Statewide sales activity in 2Q 2009 also increased over 1Q 2009’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 2Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 37.2 percent over the 1Q 2009 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 2Q 2009 increased 45.3 percent over the 1Q 2009 level.

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(When Small Business Loans Double over the course of the 1st Quarter 2009, that is a Very Positive Sign for Economic Recovery)

What shape is the recovery in?

NEW YORK – Aug. 14, 2009 – With the launch of an economic recovery all but certain this year – many experts say it’s already begun – the debate among pundits has turned decidedly alphabetical. In other words, what letter will the rebound resemble – U, V or W?

Typically, sharp downturns like the current one yield equally rapid, or V-shaped, upswings. But the worst recession since the Great Depression has been anything but typical, with housing and credit markets devastated. In a USA TODAY survey, 63 percent of economists said the recovery will be slow and gradual, or U-shaped.

Yet 37 percent said it will be moderate or fast. And a smattering of experts say the rebound will look like a W, with a precarious economy sliding back into recession before turning around for good. USA TODAY presents the case for each scenario:

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WASHINGTON – Aug. 4, 2009 – Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May; and it’s 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was July 2003.

“Historically low mortgage interest rates, affordable home prices and large selection are encouraging buyers who’ve been on the sidelines,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Activity has been consistently much stronger for lower priced homes. Because it may take as long as two months to close on a home after signing a contract, first-time buyers must act fairly soon to take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit because they must close on the sale by Nov. 30.”

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ORLANDO, Fla. – Aug. 3, 2009 – Even as Americans suffer rising unemployment, foreclosure rates in three states hit hardest by the housing bust – California, Arizona and Florida – stabilized in June, offering hope that the worst of the real estate crisis is over, according to The Associated Press’ monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.

The latest results of AP’s Economic Stress Index show foreclosure and bankruptcy rates held steady from May in some states. Yet mounting unemployment is hampering an economic recovery in some regions, especially the Southeast and industrial Midwest.

The AP calculates a score from 1 to 100 based on each county’s unemployment, foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. The higher the score, the higher the economic stress. The average county’s Stress score rose to 10.6 in June, up from 10 in May, mainly because of rising unemployment.

In June 2008, the average county’s Stress score was 6.7. The pain was lower then because the economy was still expanding. In fact, the second quarter of 2008 was the last time the economy grew.

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WASHINGTON – Aug. 3, 2009 – It was – note the past tense – the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember.

From the frenzied peak of the real estate boom in 2005-2006 to the recession’s trough earlier this year, home resales fell 38 percent and sales of new homes tumbled 76 percent. Construction of homes and apartments skidded 79 percent. And for the first time in more than four decades of record keeping, home prices posted consecutive annual declines.

A staggering $4 trillion in home equity was wiped out, and millions of Americans lost their homes through foreclosure.

Now take a deep breath and exhale. The worst is over.

By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data released in the past two weeks. Nationwide, home resales in June are up 9 percent from January, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Sales of new homes have climbed 17 percent during the same period. And construction, while still anemic, has risen almost 20 percent since the beginning of the year.

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Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in May 2009

ORLANDO, Fla. – June 23, 2009 – Florida’s existing home sales rose in May – the ninth month in a row that sales activity increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housin May existing-home sales continue rising trend, says NAR
g data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). Statewide sales showed gains over the previous month’s sales level in both the existing home and existing condominium markets. Also, for the first time in many months, the statewide median sales price in May for existing homes and for existing condos rose over the previous month’s figure.

Existing home sales rose 16 percent last month with a total of 13,921 homes sold statewide compared to 12,044 homes sold in May 2008, according to FAR. Statewide existing home sales in May increased 6.2 percent over April’s statewide activity. Florida Realtors also reported a 21 percent rise in statewide sales of existing condos in May; existing condo sales last month rose 3.8 percent over the total units sold in April.

“The improving sales of existing single family homes and condos is a trend we have been seeing for several months in Florida. What is new in this month’s data release is that we are seeing evidence of prices beginning to firm,” says Dr. Sean Snaith, director for the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “While one month of data does not a trend make, it is the first green shoot we have seen in some time as far as prices are concerned. Until prices stop declining, we cannot state with confidence that the housing market has stabilized. Sales have risen to levels we have not seen since 2006, though the economy still faces headwinds. As credit markets begin to thaw this will help speed along this process of recovery in the housing market.”

Thirteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing-home sales in May and 13 MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for 11 consecutive months.

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $144,400; a year ago, it was $203,800 for a 29 percent decrease. However, the statewide existing home median price in May was higher than the statewide median price reported in each of the previous four months. According to housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to lower the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in April 2009 was $169,800, down 14.9 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $256,700 in April; in Massachusetts, it was $275,000; in Maryland, it was $255,587; and in New York, it was $185,000.

According to NAR’s latest housing industry outlook, buyers are responding to favorable market conditions. “The $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by Nov. 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.” Many homebuyers are taking advantage of the bargain prices offered on foreclosed listings in states like Florida, California and Nevada, Yun noted, which should “set the stage for healthy market conditions going forward.”

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,839 units sold statewide compared to 3,998 units in May 2008 for a 21 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $113,400; in May 2008 it was $181,700 for a 38 percent decrease. May’s statewide existing condo median price was the same as January’s statewide median, and was higher than the median reported in February, March or April. The national median existing condo price was $173,900 in April 2009, according to NAR.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.86 percent last month, down significantly from the average rate of 6.04 percent in May 2008, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s smaller markets, the Melbourne-Titusville-Palm Bay MSA reported a total of 584 homes sold in May compared to 491 homes a year ago for a 19 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $123,700; a year ago, it was $163,100 for a 24 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, 123 units sold in the MSA last month, up 6 percent compared to 116 condos sold the previous May. The market’s existing condo median price last month was $134,400; a year earlier, it was $144,300 for a 7 percent decrease.

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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May U.S. housing construction jumps by 17.2 percent

WASHINGTON (AP) – June 16, 2009 – Construction of new U.S. homes has jumped in May by the largest amount in three months, providing an encouraging sign that the nation’s deep housing recession was beginning to bottom out.

The Commerce Department says that construction of new homes and apartments jumped 17.2 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 532,000 units. That was better than the 500,000-unit pace that economists had expected and came after construction had fallen in April to a record low of 454,000 units.

In another encouraging sign, applications for building permits, seen as a good indicator of future activity, rose by 4 percent in May to an annual rate of 518,000 units.

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Young homeowners gain despite stagnant economy

ST. LOUIS, Mo. – June 15, 2009 – If the real estate bust has a bright side, it’s this: People like Lilly Thomas, Stephanie Driskell and Dexter Wuller can finally afford homes.

Falling home prices and an $8,000 federal tax credit are putting homes in reach of young people who couldn’t afford them a few years ago. As a result, real estate agents say starter homes are the only part of the real estate market that’s showing some life.

It’s not a lot of life. House sales this year are down by a third from the boom year of 2006, and the bust spans all price classes. But the lower end of the market – houses priced under $200,000 – is suffering less, and there’s some evidence that a comeback could be beginning.

Now, real estate agents are starting to worry that rising mortgage interest rates may dampen buyers’ enthusiasm. Rates on 30-year mortgages jumped to an average of 5.59 percent last week, up from 4.84 percent a month ago. Meanwhile, many FHA lenders have raised their credit score requirements to 620 from 580, which will seal some people out of the home market.

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International buyers confident of Fla. recovery

MIAMI – June 15, 2009 – Gerson Lehman Group reports that international realty buyers believe the Florida housing market is poised for recovery, and they are paying close attention to distressed properties in the state. The report says these international buyers view homes in the United States as “desirable, profitable and secure” investments.

“Those who delay buying their dream home in Florida may soon find that they have to pay considerably more for the same property in just a few months,” advises the report’s author, Howard Liggett, president of Distressed Real Estate Consulting Services.

Liggett cites data from the National Association of Realtors® and the Florida Association of Realtors® indicating that 25 percent of international buyers are Canadian, 21 percent are British, and 21 percent are western European.

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