Fla.: Existing home, condo sales up in November

ORLANDO – Dec. 22, 2009 – Florida’s existing home sales rose in November, marking 15 months that sales activity has increased in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by Florida Realtors®.

Existing home sales rose 61 percent last month with a total of 14,026 homes sold statewide compared to 8,694 homes sold in November 2008, according to Florida Realtors. Statewide sales of existing condos increased 111 percent last month compared to November 2008’s sales figure.

For the second month in a row, all of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased existing home sales and higher condo sales in November. A majority of the state’s MSAs have reported increased sales for 17 consecutive months.

“The extended and expanded federal homebuyer tax credit will continue the positive momentum of the housing sector’s recovery – people will want to take advantage of this incredible, not-to-be-missed opportunity to buy a home of their own in Florida,” says 2009 Florida Realtors President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM, CRE, a broker and director of investment sales with Colliers Arnold in Orlando.

“For 15 months now, statewide sales of existing single-family homes in Florida have increased each month compared to the year-ago figures,” Shelton says. “The continued, gradual absorption of housing inventory will help stabilize home prices. National research notes that housing affordability is at its peak and the highest on record: Along with still-low mortgage rates, it means that the buying power of a typical family has never been better.”

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $139,000; a year ago, it was $158,200 for a 12 percent decrease. Housing industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) note that sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in October 2009 was $173,100, down 6.8 percent from a year earlier, according to NAR. In California, the statewide median resales price was $297,500 in October; in Massachusetts, it was $287,000; in Maryland, it was $250,210; and in New York, it was $209,900.

According to NAR’s latest industry outlook, home sales are experiencing a pendulum upswing. “Keep in mind that housing had been underperforming over most of the past year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The tax credit is helping unleash pent-up demand from a large pool of financially qualified renters, much more than borrowing sales from the future. In the second half of 2010, if home values show consistent stabilization or even a modest increase, then home sales could register normal healthy levels.”

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 4,889 units sold statewide last month compared to 2,320 units in November 2008 for an increase of 111 percent. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $104,400; in November 2008 it was $131,400 for a 21 percent decrease. The national median existing condo price was $172,900 in October 2009, according to NAR.

Interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.88 percent last month, a significant drop from the average rate of 6.09 percent in November 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Florida Realtors’ sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s smaller markets, the Tallahassee MSA reported a total of 174 homes sold in November compared to 100 homes a year earlier for a 74 percent increase. The market’s existing home median sales price last month was $162,000; a year ago it was $170,00 for a 5 percent decrease. A total of 5 condos sold in the MSA in November, up 150 percent over the 2 units sold in November 2008. The existing condo median price last month was $110,000; a year earlier, it was $95,000 for an increase of 16 percent.

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

CNL occupies two towers that flank Orlando City Hall downtown.

Orlando-based CNL Financial Group and Sydney’s Macquarie Group have joined forces for the first time to establish a new global REIT, CNL Macquarie Global Growth Trust Inc., which will pursue opportunities in just about every sector of commercial real estate in various areas around the world. The partners can afford to think big, as the proposed total offering for the REIT is $1.5 billion.

CNL going on a global buying spree

ORLANDO, Fla. – Oct. 27, 2009 – CNL Macquarie Global Growth Trust Inc. announced its first public offering of $1.5 billion common shares for a new real-estate investment trust, with CNL Financial Group of Orlando serving as managing dealer.

The move marks the first partnership between the CNL group and the Australian-based Macquarie Capital Funds, an affiliate of Macquarie Group Limited, which has more than $189 billion of global assets.

Unlike traditional income-driven trusts, the product announced Thursday is growth-oriented rather than income driven, said a spokesman for CNL. The focus will be on acquiring commercial office, retail, industrial and multifamily properties that may “require repositioning or redevelopment” and that may face financial deadlines or be in markets with growth potential, according to a statement released by CNL on Thursday morning.

As much as 30 percent of those assets are likely to be outside of the United States.

University of Central Florida real estate Professor Randy Anderson said the strategy of pursuing well-placed assets for less than replacement costs is the correct move at this time.

“Right now it’s really important to buy right and buy when the assets are depressed,” Anderson said.

It’s key, he added, to be well-funded with a long view of staying with a property seven to 10 years instead of looking to sell in two or three years.

“You can’t be a musical-chair kind of investor,” he said.

Another consideration is going with an experienced team of investors who know to steer away bargain properties that don’t make sense in the long run, he added. CNL has had an “uncanny” ability to buy those strategic assets when the properties are out of favor, Anderson said.

Founded in Orlando in 1973, CNL Financial group has formed or acquired companies with more than $23 billion in assets, including hotel, retail, restaurant, and senior housing. Macquarie Group Limited, with headquarters in Sydney, was founded in 1969 and operates in more than 70 office locations in 26 countries.

Copyright © 2009 The Orlando Sentinel, Fla., Mary Shanklin. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Record streak continues for pending home sales

WASHINGTON – Oct. 1, 2009 – Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2 percent to 85.3 in August and is 12.0 percent higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1 percent to 90.8 in August and is 7.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8 percent to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2 percent above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0 percent to 130.5 and is 22.3 percent above a year ago.

“There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy,” Yun explained. “Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it’s challenging to assess.”

Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. “Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit,” he said. “Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it’s stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points.”

McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. “We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we’ll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors,” he said. “Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs.”

Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. “All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession,” he said. “Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

Good news about housing and stocks lifts Florida’s consumer confidence

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Aug. 26, 2009 – Rising housing prices, stock market gains and the lack of any new setbacks in the national economy boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 70 this month, according to a new University of Florida (UF) survey.

“We had anticipated an increase in consumer confidence in August based on what appeared to be an unjustifiable two-point drop in July following what was already a two-point decline the previous month,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “While the economic environment is by no means bright, the decline in July seemed unsustainable given the lack of any very bad economic news and some encouraging signs in Florida’s housing market and the stock market.”

Three of the five components in the index rose, one fell and one stayed the same. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 43, still only four points above its all-time low of 39. Perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year jumped 10 points to 73; perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose eight points to 80; and perceptions of personal finances a year from now increased five points to 84. The only component to drop was perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, which fell five points to 72.

“We are not out of this recession yet, particularly here in Florida, but things are not nearly as bad as they were a year ago,” McCarty said.

Home sales have picked up both nationally and in Florida, and falling prices suggest a bottoming out of the housing slump, McCarty said. The latest report from the Florida Association of Realtors® shows median prices for existing single-family homes flat from last month and still up for the year.

If foreclosures continue, they could depress home prices, McCarty said. The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that 23 percent of Florida mortgages in the second quarter of 2009 were either in foreclosure or late on payments.

The hardest hit area for foreclosures is along the southwest coast, including Fort Myers, Sarasota and Punta Gorda, all of which are disproportionately dependent on retirees, McCarty said. A slowing of the retiree housing market is a big factor in Florida’s population decline last year for the first time since 1946, which the bureau reported last week, he said.

“We expect consumer confidence to stay mired in the upper 60s and low 70s as the recovery develops,” McCarty said. “Unfortunately, while Florida housing is showing signs of improving, the overall state economy in the long run will likely lag other parts of the country given the prospects for a turnaround in employment.

“As the country moves into recovery over the next year, real estate, construction spending and tourism – all of which have been major sectors in Florida economy’s over the past two decades – will certainly stabilize, but not grow as they had,” he said. “Florida needs a new approach.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for August was conducted from 425 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

MIAMI – Aug. 4, 2009 – Jose Garcia looks over the contract for his Gables Estates home with Realtor Audrey Ross, who deals with the ultra-luxury housing market. The price of Garcia’s home: Just under $20 million.

Elite Realty. “Now, we’re getting five, six, 10 families coming through. I’m really praying and keeping my fingers crossed this is a permanent thing.”

Confidence seems to be returning, as well as a rising tide of money from outside the country, positive signs for both the high-end housing market, and the real estate market in general. Demand fed by foreign money has always been a critical piece of the real estate puzzle in South Florida.

“We’re on our way out of the worst (of the economic downturn)” said Manny Mesa, a Doral-based trial lawyer who is hunting for a bigger home for his wife and four children.

On Thursday, he toured the digs of former Miami Heat point guard Tim Hardaway. Hardaway is asking $3.9 million for the five-bedroom, five-bath home on almost two acres in the Pinecrest area. It boasts a six-foot coral rock wall for privacy and a closet the size of a very large bedroom.

“People are confident that the world is not ending,” said Adam Greenberg, a managing director for BayBridge, a Miami-based brokerage and mortgage banking firm. “They were so concerned it was ending and that our financial system could falter.”

When the global economy took a dive last year, real estate prices plummeted, including prices for South Florida’s toniest properties, priced at $1 million or more.

And then things got worse. As the calendar year turned, fear that the global financial system was heading off a cliff brought South Florida’s luxury home market – largely dependent on foreign wealth – to a standstill. In January, just nine houses priced over $1 million sold in Miami-Dade and seven in Broward.

But now brokers and some analysts are sensing a collective, if tentative, sigh of relief among the very wealthy, as evidenced by the recent uptick in luxury home sales. In June, the last full month of available data, 25 were sold in Broward and 41 in Miami-Dade.

The figures are still significantly off from the market’s peak, when about twice as many were selling on a monthly basis. And prices are still droopy.

Nonetheless, real estate brokers say it is evident that foreign buyers are returning to South Florida as news spreads globally that many of the region’s tropical, waterfront palaces are on sale. Among the bargains: Shaquille O’Neal’s 2.45 acre estate on Star Island, which sold recently for $16 million, about $2 million less than he paid for it in 2004.

Marketing a really ritzy home can involve having a robust website devoted just to that one property, color spreads in the Robb Report (billed as “The Global Luxury Source”) and advertising spots on shows like Extra and Power Lunch on CNBC. But in other ways it’s not that different from selling a two-bedroom CBS in South Miami. Delinois recommends having scented candles burning and a loaf of bread baking in the oven.

“Smell is very, very important,” said Delinois, who must know something, having sold Hulk Hogan’s home on North Bay Road in Miami Beach for a whopping $17.9 million.

Alas, despite Delinois’ recommendation, Hardaway didn’t have any candles burning or bread baking when Mesa stopped by. He didn’t get the sale either.

Mesa said he was going to keep on looking.

Brokers and analysts say the renewed activity in high-end real estate is at least partly because of a revived interest among lenders in making very large loans, called jumbo loans.

Banks’ appetite for jumbo loans – defined as more than $423,750 in South Florida – had all but evaporated as lenders hunkered down to weather the storm.

“They are marketing, inviting us to their offices to meet with them to tell us what they can do,” said Tere Bernace, a broker specializing in waterfront properties in Coral Gables and a former banker with Barclays Capital. “They say they are trying to increase their profile again in our market.”

Added Delinois: “I have never had a bank calling before to say they were lending.” BayBridge’s Greenberg said banks are interested in the rich and famous because they are looking for safety.

“They see values as very depressed and borrowers in the super luxury home market as a very unlikely default candidates,” he said.

In the past 30 days, BayBridge has closed three loans that were over $5 million.

“I’ve never had a client that has defaulted on a loan over $5 million in the nine years I’ve been doing this,” Greenberg said.

Spokesmen for Ocean Bank and BBU Bank in Coral Gables acknowledged they are actively seeking the business of luxury home buyers.

That doesn’t mean the loans are easy to get. Large loans require much heftier down payments – up to 50 percent of the purchase price – and stringent verification of income and assets.

Those who buy in the ultra-luxury category (homes priced at $5 million or more) often aren’t looking for loans.

“Most of the people who buy at this price point don’t finance, and if they do, it’s a matter of convenience,” said Audrey Ross, a senior vice president of Esslinger Wooten Maxwell.

In the past three months, Ross brokered three sales in Gables Estates – each for more than $5 million, she said. Two were all-cash transactions.

Ross, who has specialized in high-end real estate for 25 years, said typically the ultra-luxury sector takes less of a hit in real estate downturns and is usually the first to recover.

Luxury prices have held up significantly better in the current slump than the market as a whole, according to Coral Gables-based real estate analyst David Dabby.

For homes selling for more than $1 million, the price per square foot has fallen about 14 percent in Miami-Dade and 20 percent in Broward from the 2006 peak.

That compares to a 50 percent decline in the market as a whole, Dabby said.

Jill Hertzberg, a broker with Coldwell Banker, who along with her partner Jill Eber was ranked eighth nationwide in sales volume last year by The Wall Street Journal and LORE Magazine, said unheard of deals on luxury properties are driving interest.

Hertzberg cooed over a fully renovated home in Miami Beach with a stunning wide-water vista of Miami’s skyline that “ ‘screamed out to anyone wanting a downtown view and a beautiful home.”

Originally listed for $4.1 million, the property was dropped to $3.2 million and quickly drew multiple offers. It is now under contract and a closing date has been set.

“These are great properties,” Hertzberg said. “They aren’t second-rate properties. They are adjusting down to prices that are incredible, that no one has see before and people are buying them.”

 Copyright © 2009 The Miami Herald

 
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‘Freaky’ side of real estate economics
Flat-fee brokers may put pressure on traditional commissions
Friday, June 23, 2006

By Glenn Roberts Jr.
Inman News

SAN FRANCISCO — Traditional pricing for real estate services is bound to crumble, and flat-fee brokers will likely deliver the deathblow — at least according to Steven D. Levitt, co-author of “Freakonomics,” a book that takes an unconventional approach to economics.

Levitt, who spoke to attendees Thursday at the PCBC builders’ conference and trade show at San Francisco’s Moscone Center, also said that the real estate brokerage industry is in some ways its own worst enemy, as low barriers to entry lead to proportional surges in agent population during housing market booms.

“It turns out that the median real estate agent is making the same amount of money today that they were 10 years ago, despite the fact that housing prices are up 50 to 60 to 70 percent during that time period nationwide. In the end … you’ve got to feel sorry for the real estate agents. Now, instead of selling six houses a year, the typical agent sells two or three houses. My own feeling is that if you were thinking about getting into the real estate business, I wouldn’t do it,” he said.

Such views have not won Levitt and co-author Stephen J. Dubner any popularity contests within the ranks of the National Association of Realtors trade group, Levitt readily acknowledges. Particularly because one of the chapters in the book draws parallels between real estate agents and the Ku Klux Klan. “We’re not big favorites with the National Association of Realtors right now,” he said.

But Levitt explained that the book is not intended “to imply that real estate agents are bad people in any way, shape or form,” he said. His research has raised questions, though, about whether real estate agents always seek to get the best deal for their clients.

In an analysis of 100,000 home sales in the Chicago area, Levitt found that real estate agents tend to sell their own homes for about 3 percent or so more than the selling price of their clients’ homes. When he speaks to real estate agents, he inevitably will hear a familiar range of responses, he said, such as: “Well, that’s just because we have better taste. We’re better at showing houses. We have good paint colors and that makes people want to jump in our houses and pay more.”

The research also found that real estate agents tend to leave their own homes on the market about 10 percent longer than their clients’ homes. “If they have such great taste in paint you’d think their homes would sell faster than their clients’ (homes),” he said, adding that he was not surprised by the findings.

He shared a personal story about a home he was interested in buying in the suburban Chicago area. The home had been on the market for about six or eight months, and he decided to call the listing agent directly.

“I had learned already that I didn’t want to have a buyer’s agent,” he said, since he knew that a buyer’s agent shares in the total commission paid by the seller to the listing agent. By going directly to the seller’s agent, that agent and the agent’s broker could keep all of the commission for themselves.

“I said to her, ‘I’m interested in this house and I don’t believe in buyer’s agents.’ I could hear her voice really pick up on the other side of the line.” Then, he asked a very direct question. “Can you just tell me the absolute lowest price at which the homeowner is willing to sell this house for?”

Her response, “You should be ashamed of yourself. That would be a complete violation of my client relationship to tell you any information like that and you should know better than that. It’s not right to ask me questions like that.”

Later, as the phone call came to an end, Levitt said the agent volunteered some information that led to his offer on the property: “Let me just tell you one last thing. The owner of this home is willing to sell this house for less than you can possibly imagine.”

He made an offer for $50,000 less than he had planned to offer, and the offer was accepted without any back-and-forth. “Basically, in order for that agent to put an extra $20,000 or $30,000 back in her pocket she basically stole $50,000 from her client.”

Levitt added, “When I tell this story in front of real estate agents, I always get the same reaction, completely predictably, ‘I would never, ever do something like that to my client. It’s just patently absurd.’ But you wouldn’t believe the people I interact with on a daily basis – every other real estate agent is doing this every time I turn around.”

Lately, Levitt has focused his attention on flat-fee real estate brokers that charge a flat rate for listing a home for sale in a multiple listing service. He has studied three markets, and so far has concluded that there isn’t much difference in the price that sellers get for using a flat-fee broker versus a traditional, full-service real estate broker.

“In some markets it may take 10 to 15 days longer to sell my house — in other markets I see no difference at all. In the end, if this is true, it’s really going to be bad, bad news for real estate agents, which I think is actually really good news for everybody else.

“I just don’t see how the real estate agents can maintain the level of pricing they have,” he said, referring to a commission rate that has traditionally hovered around 6 percent of the sale price of a home. “And I think that the way it will crumble is not through FSBOs (for-sale-by-owner transactions). What’s really going to be the undoing of real estate agents is going to be flat-fee brokers. It seems to me that’s a very viable option, unless (Realtors are) successful in the end in getting legislation passed which will preclude it from happening.”

Levitt said that lawyers for the National Association of Realtors asked about the source of the MLS data used in his and threatened litigation. But Laurie Janik, general counsel for the National Association of Realtors, said today, “NAR never at any time ever threatened Mr. Levitt with litigation nor did any member of my staff ever speak to him or contact him.”

And Steve Cook, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said that the Realtor group has not taken any legal action against Levitt or the real estate professional who supplied the MLS data.

New doors opened to his research after the release of “Freakonomics,” Levitt said. “Suddenly, everybody wants to give me data.”