Sarasota real estate market remains hot as temperatures cool

The Sarasota real estate market remained hot in November 2009 with overall sales nearly 86 percent higher than November 2008.  Total sales stood at 578 in November, mirroring last month’s total of 574 and much higher than the 311 sales reported in November 2008. The breakdown was 417 single family homes and 161 condos sold last month.
 
The fall has proven to be a busy one for many local Realtors®, and the trend doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Pending sales stood at 793 in November, just below last month’s total of 839, and far higher than last November, when only 504 pendings were reported. The statistic is a strong indicator for the next two or three months of sales, as pending sales are an indicator of current buyer activity. Some experts had predicted pending sales might slow because of the uncertainty over the extension of the first-time homebuyer’s tax credit. But that fear has proven unfounded in the Sarasota market.

 The tax credit was extended and expanded to include many other homebuyers on Nov. 6, so the home buying sales rush could easily continue through the season and the first quarter of 2010. The recent statistics continue to point to a local market in a prolonged recovery period.
 
The median sale prices for single family homes and condominiums have apparently stabilized after the extended drop experienced in 2008. The median sale price for single family homes actually jumped by approximately 6 percent to $162,500 from October’s level of $151,000. The median was only 4.4 percent below the November 2008 median sale price of $170,000.
 
The condominium median prices continue to see-saw, dropping to $178,750 in November after rising to $220,000 in October. In September 2009, the median was only $162,500. In November 2008, the median sale price was $195,000, which is very near the median condominium sale price for the 11 months of 2009 ($198,500).
 
Bank-owned property sales and short sales are still accounting for almost half of the single-family home sales and a third of the condo sales in November, and still represent the biggest factor in the overall lower sale prices. For normal arm’s length sales the median sale prices are almost double the figures for the distressed properties.
 
“We are experiencing a very active real estate market during the early seasonal months, when our northern visitors and winter residents return,” said Bill Geller, 2009 SAR President. “Even during these times of higher unemployment and slower national economic activity, it’s very encouraging to see that the Sarasota area remains an attractive place to purchase a home. The statistical trends indicate the market is returning to health. Higher sales and pending sales, stabilizing prices, lower inventories – all of these numbers point to a return to a vibrant real estate market.”
 
While the inventory level rose slightly in November, from 6,226 to 6,261 properties on the market, it is still at the lowest level since late summer of 2005 and the years prior to the boom period from 2003 – 2005.
 
The “months of inventory” – the number of months it would take to sell all the available properties at the current sales rate – dropped to 14.6 months for condos. That’s the lowest figure in the past three years, and far lower than the 40.5 months reported in November 2008. The months of inventory is now 9.4 months for single family homes, slightly higher than October’s 9.3 months, but far lower than last year’s figure of 27.6 months. A figure of 6 months is considered to be a market in equilibrium between buyers and sellers.

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Record streak continues for pending home sales

WASHINGTON – Oct. 1, 2009 – Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2 percent to 85.3 in August and is 12.0 percent higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1 percent to 90.8 in August and is 7.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8 percent to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2 percent above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0 percent to 130.5 and is 22.3 percent above a year ago.

“There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy,” Yun explained. “Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it’s challenging to assess.”

Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. “Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit,” he said. “Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it’s stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points.”

McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. “We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we’ll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors,” he said. “Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs.”

Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. “All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession,” he said. “Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

High-end homes: is the tide turning?

HORSHAM, Penn. – Aug. 14, 2009 – High-end homes appear to be selling better than analysts thought.

Toll Brothers (TOL), the nation’s largest luxury homebuilder, on Aug. 12 announced its first year-over-year increase in signed home contracts since 2005, suggesting that first-time buyers might not be alone in driving improving U.S. home sales.

The Horsham [Pa.]-based builder said that signed contracts in the quarter ended July 31 – though still low by historic standards – rose 3 percent, to 837, compared with the same period a year ago. But revenues fell 42 percent in the quarter, to $461.3 million. The company also said it has been able to reduce buyer incentives in several markets as demand and contract cancellations improve.

“Mood has changed”

No other major builder has matched Toll Brothers’ 3 percent increase in contracts signed, though a few reported a 2 percent improvement in the most recent quarter, said Barclays Capital analyst Megan McGrath in New York. The average quarterly decline in new home contracts for major public builders was about 14 percent, she said.

Toll Brothers attributed the improvement to low interest rates, government homebuyer incentives, the recent stock market surge, and decreased competition from smaller and midsize builders now frozen out of credit markets. “The mood has changed,” Chief Executive Robert Toll told analysts during a conference call. “Our traffic still stinks but those people that are coming in are more serious. They’re not just fishing any longer. Now, there’s fear on both sides. We fear not selling and they fear missing.”

McGrath said Toll Brothers is selling homes for an average of $582,000 – far below the multimillion-dollar price tags for the estates of the rich and famous commonly referred to as “luxury real estate.” The market for million-dollar homes is weak, but Toll Brothers’ homes are more modestly priced and generally don’t require “jumbo” mortgages. Those are loans that generally exceed $417,000. Toll said the company’s strongest markets are in the Northeast, particularly Connecticut, the New York suburbs, and New Jersey. But sales are also strong in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.; Delaware; Raleigh, N.C.; Orlando; Northern California; and Naples, Fla.

Too soon to tell

Shares of Toll Brothers closed 14 percent higher Wednesday, at 23.42. “There are a lot of stories in the press about how poor the luxury market has been doing,” McGrath said. “Some of it is a misunderstanding about what is luxury and Toll’s actual business.”

Michael Widner, vice-president of Stifel Nicolaus Research (SF), said it’s too early to say whether Toll Brothers’ performance represents a change in the market because the small improvement in contracts signed might be a temporary blip. “If we have seen a rebound in something other than the first-time homebuyer market, this is the first real sign of it,” Widner said. “It’s a little early to celebrate too much.”

Copyright © 2009 The McGraw-Hill Cos., Prashant Gopal. All rights reserved

MIAMI – Aug. 4, 2009 – Jose Garcia looks over the contract for his Gables Estates home with Realtor Audrey Ross, who deals with the ultra-luxury housing market. The price of Garcia’s home: Just under $20 million.

Elite Realty. “Now, we’re getting five, six, 10 families coming through. I’m really praying and keeping my fingers crossed this is a permanent thing.”

Confidence seems to be returning, as well as a rising tide of money from outside the country, positive signs for both the high-end housing market, and the real estate market in general. Demand fed by foreign money has always been a critical piece of the real estate puzzle in South Florida.

“We’re on our way out of the worst (of the economic downturn)” said Manny Mesa, a Doral-based trial lawyer who is hunting for a bigger home for his wife and four children.

On Thursday, he toured the digs of former Miami Heat point guard Tim Hardaway. Hardaway is asking $3.9 million for the five-bedroom, five-bath home on almost two acres in the Pinecrest area. It boasts a six-foot coral rock wall for privacy and a closet the size of a very large bedroom.

“People are confident that the world is not ending,” said Adam Greenberg, a managing director for BayBridge, a Miami-based brokerage and mortgage banking firm. “They were so concerned it was ending and that our financial system could falter.”

When the global economy took a dive last year, real estate prices plummeted, including prices for South Florida’s toniest properties, priced at $1 million or more.

And then things got worse. As the calendar year turned, fear that the global financial system was heading off a cliff brought South Florida’s luxury home market – largely dependent on foreign wealth – to a standstill. In January, just nine houses priced over $1 million sold in Miami-Dade and seven in Broward.

But now brokers and some analysts are sensing a collective, if tentative, sigh of relief among the very wealthy, as evidenced by the recent uptick in luxury home sales. In June, the last full month of available data, 25 were sold in Broward and 41 in Miami-Dade.

The figures are still significantly off from the market’s peak, when about twice as many were selling on a monthly basis. And prices are still droopy.

Nonetheless, real estate brokers say it is evident that foreign buyers are returning to South Florida as news spreads globally that many of the region’s tropical, waterfront palaces are on sale. Among the bargains: Shaquille O’Neal’s 2.45 acre estate on Star Island, which sold recently for $16 million, about $2 million less than he paid for it in 2004.

Marketing a really ritzy home can involve having a robust website devoted just to that one property, color spreads in the Robb Report (billed as “The Global Luxury Source”) and advertising spots on shows like Extra and Power Lunch on CNBC. But in other ways it’s not that different from selling a two-bedroom CBS in South Miami. Delinois recommends having scented candles burning and a loaf of bread baking in the oven.

“Smell is very, very important,” said Delinois, who must know something, having sold Hulk Hogan’s home on North Bay Road in Miami Beach for a whopping $17.9 million.

Alas, despite Delinois’ recommendation, Hardaway didn’t have any candles burning or bread baking when Mesa stopped by. He didn’t get the sale either.

Mesa said he was going to keep on looking.

Brokers and analysts say the renewed activity in high-end real estate is at least partly because of a revived interest among lenders in making very large loans, called jumbo loans.

Banks’ appetite for jumbo loans – defined as more than $423,750 in South Florida – had all but evaporated as lenders hunkered down to weather the storm.

“They are marketing, inviting us to their offices to meet with them to tell us what they can do,” said Tere Bernace, a broker specializing in waterfront properties in Coral Gables and a former banker with Barclays Capital. “They say they are trying to increase their profile again in our market.”

Added Delinois: “I have never had a bank calling before to say they were lending.” BayBridge’s Greenberg said banks are interested in the rich and famous because they are looking for safety.

“They see values as very depressed and borrowers in the super luxury home market as a very unlikely default candidates,” he said.

In the past 30 days, BayBridge has closed three loans that were over $5 million.

“I’ve never had a client that has defaulted on a loan over $5 million in the nine years I’ve been doing this,” Greenberg said.

Spokesmen for Ocean Bank and BBU Bank in Coral Gables acknowledged they are actively seeking the business of luxury home buyers.

That doesn’t mean the loans are easy to get. Large loans require much heftier down payments – up to 50 percent of the purchase price – and stringent verification of income and assets.

Those who buy in the ultra-luxury category (homes priced at $5 million or more) often aren’t looking for loans.

“Most of the people who buy at this price point don’t finance, and if they do, it’s a matter of convenience,” said Audrey Ross, a senior vice president of Esslinger Wooten Maxwell.

In the past three months, Ross brokered three sales in Gables Estates – each for more than $5 million, she said. Two were all-cash transactions.

Ross, who has specialized in high-end real estate for 25 years, said typically the ultra-luxury sector takes less of a hit in real estate downturns and is usually the first to recover.

Luxury prices have held up significantly better in the current slump than the market as a whole, according to Coral Gables-based real estate analyst David Dabby.

For homes selling for more than $1 million, the price per square foot has fallen about 14 percent in Miami-Dade and 20 percent in Broward from the 2006 peak.

That compares to a 50 percent decline in the market as a whole, Dabby said.

Jill Hertzberg, a broker with Coldwell Banker, who along with her partner Jill Eber was ranked eighth nationwide in sales volume last year by The Wall Street Journal and LORE Magazine, said unheard of deals on luxury properties are driving interest.

Hertzberg cooed over a fully renovated home in Miami Beach with a stunning wide-water vista of Miami’s skyline that “ ‘screamed out to anyone wanting a downtown view and a beautiful home.”

Originally listed for $4.1 million, the property was dropped to $3.2 million and quickly drew multiple offers. It is now under contract and a closing date has been set.

“These are great properties,” Hertzberg said. “They aren’t second-rate properties. They are adjusting down to prices that are incredible, that no one has see before and people are buying them.”

 Copyright © 2009 The Miami Herald

 
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‘Freaky’ side of real estate economics
Flat-fee brokers may put pressure on traditional commissions
Friday, June 23, 2006

By Glenn Roberts Jr.
Inman News

SAN FRANCISCO — Traditional pricing for real estate services is bound to crumble, and flat-fee brokers will likely deliver the deathblow — at least according to Steven D. Levitt, co-author of “Freakonomics,” a book that takes an unconventional approach to economics.

Levitt, who spoke to attendees Thursday at the PCBC builders’ conference and trade show at San Francisco’s Moscone Center, also said that the real estate brokerage industry is in some ways its own worst enemy, as low barriers to entry lead to proportional surges in agent population during housing market booms.

“It turns out that the median real estate agent is making the same amount of money today that they were 10 years ago, despite the fact that housing prices are up 50 to 60 to 70 percent during that time period nationwide. In the end … you’ve got to feel sorry for the real estate agents. Now, instead of selling six houses a year, the typical agent sells two or three houses. My own feeling is that if you were thinking about getting into the real estate business, I wouldn’t do it,” he said.

Such views have not won Levitt and co-author Stephen J. Dubner any popularity contests within the ranks of the National Association of Realtors trade group, Levitt readily acknowledges. Particularly because one of the chapters in the book draws parallels between real estate agents and the Ku Klux Klan. “We’re not big favorites with the National Association of Realtors right now,” he said.

But Levitt explained that the book is not intended “to imply that real estate agents are bad people in any way, shape or form,” he said. His research has raised questions, though, about whether real estate agents always seek to get the best deal for their clients.

In an analysis of 100,000 home sales in the Chicago area, Levitt found that real estate agents tend to sell their own homes for about 3 percent or so more than the selling price of their clients’ homes. When he speaks to real estate agents, he inevitably will hear a familiar range of responses, he said, such as: “Well, that’s just because we have better taste. We’re better at showing houses. We have good paint colors and that makes people want to jump in our houses and pay more.”

The research also found that real estate agents tend to leave their own homes on the market about 10 percent longer than their clients’ homes. “If they have such great taste in paint you’d think their homes would sell faster than their clients’ (homes),” he said, adding that he was not surprised by the findings.

He shared a personal story about a home he was interested in buying in the suburban Chicago area. The home had been on the market for about six or eight months, and he decided to call the listing agent directly.

“I had learned already that I didn’t want to have a buyer’s agent,” he said, since he knew that a buyer’s agent shares in the total commission paid by the seller to the listing agent. By going directly to the seller’s agent, that agent and the agent’s broker could keep all of the commission for themselves.

“I said to her, ‘I’m interested in this house and I don’t believe in buyer’s agents.’ I could hear her voice really pick up on the other side of the line.” Then, he asked a very direct question. “Can you just tell me the absolute lowest price at which the homeowner is willing to sell this house for?”

Her response, “You should be ashamed of yourself. That would be a complete violation of my client relationship to tell you any information like that and you should know better than that. It’s not right to ask me questions like that.”

Later, as the phone call came to an end, Levitt said the agent volunteered some information that led to his offer on the property: “Let me just tell you one last thing. The owner of this home is willing to sell this house for less than you can possibly imagine.”

He made an offer for $50,000 less than he had planned to offer, and the offer was accepted without any back-and-forth. “Basically, in order for that agent to put an extra $20,000 or $30,000 back in her pocket she basically stole $50,000 from her client.”

Levitt added, “When I tell this story in front of real estate agents, I always get the same reaction, completely predictably, ‘I would never, ever do something like that to my client. It’s just patently absurd.’ But you wouldn’t believe the people I interact with on a daily basis – every other real estate agent is doing this every time I turn around.”

Lately, Levitt has focused his attention on flat-fee real estate brokers that charge a flat rate for listing a home for sale in a multiple listing service. He has studied three markets, and so far has concluded that there isn’t much difference in the price that sellers get for using a flat-fee broker versus a traditional, full-service real estate broker.

“In some markets it may take 10 to 15 days longer to sell my house — in other markets I see no difference at all. In the end, if this is true, it’s really going to be bad, bad news for real estate agents, which I think is actually really good news for everybody else.

“I just don’t see how the real estate agents can maintain the level of pricing they have,” he said, referring to a commission rate that has traditionally hovered around 6 percent of the sale price of a home. “And I think that the way it will crumble is not through FSBOs (for-sale-by-owner transactions). What’s really going to be the undoing of real estate agents is going to be flat-fee brokers. It seems to me that’s a very viable option, unless (Realtors are) successful in the end in getting legislation passed which will preclude it from happening.”

Levitt said that lawyers for the National Association of Realtors asked about the source of the MLS data used in his and threatened litigation. But Laurie Janik, general counsel for the National Association of Realtors, said today, “NAR never at any time ever threatened Mr. Levitt with litigation nor did any member of my staff ever speak to him or contact him.”

And Steve Cook, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said that the Realtor group has not taken any legal action against Levitt or the real estate professional who supplied the MLS data.

New doors opened to his research after the release of “Freakonomics,” Levitt said. “Suddenly, everybody wants to give me data.”

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