Sarasota real estate market at highest level since 2005

Property sales in May 2010 in the Sarasota market once again hit the highest total since 2005 and median sale prices continued the steady pace observed in recent months.

The 766 sales were the highest for the year, topping the April 2010 total of 757, and were the highest total since December 2005, and 51.3 percent higher than the May 2009 total of 506 sales.

Pending sales were once again strong, hitting 857, but were slower than April 2010. The March and April pending sales figures both topped 1,000, and reflected a last minute rush to beat the federal homebuyer tax credit deadline.

“The May 2010 statistics continued to show that the Sarasota real estate market is continuing a steady recovery,” said 2010 SAR President Erick Shumway. “We saw a slight dip in the pending sales, which will likely be reflected in the sales numbers over the next 30 to 60 days. But median sale prices are higher than last year at this time, and we remain optimistic.”
Members of the Sarasota Association of Realtors® sold 539 single family homes and 227 condos in May 2010, a huge jump over May 2009, which saw only 375 single family homes and 131 condos sold.

The median sale price for a single family home was also trending higher at $169,000, up 8.4 percent from last May’s figure of $155,000. For the last 12 months combined, the median sale price for single family homes was $165,000. For condos, the median price was $184,500, slightly higher than last May’s figure of $181,000, while the median sale price for condos over the last 12 months was $192,000.

The pace of sales quickened for single family homes, with the average days on market dropping to 168, from 195 days last May. For condos, the figure stood at 213 days, slightly higher than last May’s figure of 203 days.
The level of sales of distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) rose slightly in May 2010 to 40 percent of the overall market, from 38 percent in April 2010. The distressed market topped 48 percent in late 2009, so the overall trend remains downward – a good sign for a market returning to normal.

The property inventory level remained steady in May 2010 at 6,094, which is the lowest level since late summer of 2005.
The months of inventory for single family homes in May 2010 dropped to 7.2 months, the number of months it would take to sell all available homes at the current pace.

This was a significant drop from May 2009 – 14.3 months – and very near equilibrium. For condos, the figure fell to 9.7 months, much lower than last May’s figure of 19.0 months. Once the market reaches the 6 month level it is considered to be in equilibrium between a buyers and sellers market.

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CEO
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941.448.4872
www.JustinShirley.com

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Flat Fee MLS Listings show Innovation & Creativity among Real Estate Corporations: Finally, an Option for the Owner Wanting to Save Money & Sell Fast

The competition for listings between so-called “traditional” realty brokerages and commission discounters kicks up a lot of dust, but when the air clears it’s apparent that cut-rate brokerages aren’t the only force putting downward pressure on realty commissions as a percentage of the home sales price.

Fee-for-service brokerages, Internet-savvy buyers, skyrocketing home prices, a dearth of listings in some markets and some sellers’ notion that they can sell their home without paying an agent are among the other factors bearing down on conventional realty pricing structures.

Brokers and agents for decades have feared and resisted changes that would restructure commissions and traditional business models. But experts say change is unavoidable due to the new breed of real estate consumer created by the Internet.

“Real estate for almost a hundred years (considered) the end-user as being the agent and the brokerage, not the consumer. With the advent of the Internet, the entire paradigm is shifting and our end-user is definitely the consumer, not the agent,” said Julie Gardon-Good, founder and president of the National Association of Real Estate Consultants, a 1,000-member group formed in 1999 to assist realty practitioners in reframing their focus as real estate consultants.

Consumers want more control over the transaction. They value the real estate agent’s knowledge, but they resist paying for it as a percentage of the home sales price, according to Gardon-Good. She believes the fee-for-service model gives sellers what they want and compensates agents with what they’re worth.

Fee-for-service agents attach a dollar value to each service or calculate an hourly rate that’s paid regardless of whether the deal closes. The model recognizes services that have typically been given away and identifies which services are more profitable than others. Discounting typically includes providing the so-called “full service,” but charging less than the market-rate commission.

The menu aspect of fee-for-service often is confused with commission discounting. But the home’s market value determines whether the seller pays a discount or a premium price on a fee-for-service basis.

Bill Wendell, broker/owner of the Real Estate Café, which dishes a la carte buyer-side realty services, operates on the front lines of the fee-for-service model. Wendell charges $100 per hour for his services.

The average real estate transaction requires 40-60 hours per side, according Gardon-Good. That means Wendell would earn $4,000 to $6,000 per transaction or slightly more than 3 percent on a $160,000 house, but significantly less than 3 percent on a $300,000 house.

Other forces picking away at the commission structure are for-sale-by-owners who can pay a flat fee to an agent for an MLS listing with or without a buyer-agent commission split offer and the low inventory of houses for sale in some markets, which motivates agents to cut commissions in an attempt to win listings.

Skyrocketing home prices lead some sellers to question the typical 6 percent commission. A home that cost, say, $200,000 a year ago would have generated a $12,000 commission at 6 percent. If that home cost, say, $235,000 today, it would generate a $14,100 commission at 6 percent for the same services. The numbers are more striking for higher-priced homes and exceptionally hot markets. Sellers make those calculations themselves, then use the numbers to negotiate a lower rate.

Tom Cromer, broker/owner of a Miami Assist-2-Sell office, believes technology and demanding consumers pressure commissions downward, especially in the high-end housing market where a $3 million sale with a 6 percent commission would net a $180,000 commission.

“We don’t find home selling that complicated. It doesn’t take much more effort to sell a $3 million house than it takes to sell a $300,000 house,” he said.

Internet-based find-an-agent referral services like HomeGain, among others, have empowered home sellers with anonymity and turned them into fearless commission negotiators.

“People have more courage on the phone, so it would make sense that people would have more courage taking this issue on online,” said HomeGain CEO Bruce Schroder.

Self-sufficient, Web-savvy buyers and sellers know their options, spend more time virtually shopping homes and less time in the backseat of an agent’s car and expect their hard work to be rewarded with lower realty fees.

A California Association of Realtors 2002 study revealed that home buyers who used the Internet to help them with their real estate needs spent on average two weeks home shopping with their real estate agent and looked at approximately 7 homes. Traditional buyers spent approximately 6 weeks with their agents and looked at approximately 15 homes.

“The Internet has brought real estate information, be that about Realtors, house prices, commission structures, to everybody’s doorstep. So things which they might not have been sensitive about before they are more aware of today,” said real estate expert and author Stefan Swanepoel.

Editor’s note: Inman News Publisher Bradley Inman also is the founder and chairman of Homegain

Unbundling the Real Estate Transaction:
Providing fee-based services as a real estate consultant
Julie Garton-Good, DREI, GRI

As a broker of twenty-five years, I’ve always had a problem with how our industry is designed. We spend eons of time consulting with buyers and sellers-for free. We receive no up-front fees, even though we’re expected to expend hundreds of dollars per listing (our stock in trade, even though we have no control over it) just to make the phone ring (as well as appease the seller, even though he has no earthly idea what goes into a marketing campaign!) We then spend dozens of hours each month driving buyer prospects around educating them, often to have them purchase from someone else–oftentimes a for-sale-by-owner. And last, but certainly not least, there’s the concept of service — we service the seller, we service the buyer. We provide service at every turn, hoping that the consumer will see value in all this service and reward our efforts by selling or buying with us. Then, and only then, do we get paid.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but is it likely that Bill Gates or Mary Kay Ash would use our current real estate sales model to design a multi- billion dollar business empire? No, I don’t think so either.

SERVICE DOES NOT EQUATE RESULTS

I believe that too much service may be part of our industry’s problem. Think about it — that which is readily available and given freely is often discounted. And are there times when too much real estate service could actually break down communications with the consumer, causing us to move away from, instead of toward, results?

Let’s say that you’ve had a seller listed for four months with very few showings. You service the seller, ad nauseam, mailing ads to him, calling on a weekly basis — even holding a broker’s open. If you could just get an offer on the home, you think you could sell it to the owner. After all, you’re keeping him informed with copious service.

While all this is happening, the seller is thinking, “If that agent would just DO something to get this house sold! He keeps sending me all this mail, but I’ve yet to see even one offer.”

Extended into the future, the seller is likely to change companies, assuming that the first agent/company was incapable of achieving the seller’s desired result of selling the house.

True, sellers don’t really understand what we do. But perhaps part of our problem as professionals is that we haven’t prioritized the aspects, of our business that SHOW value. We’ve been “majoring in minors” as the phrase goes; and we’ve awakened to a brave, new world where cheaper, more flexible, online products are empowering consumers and replacing much of what we’ve previously done as real estate agents.

AGENTS GIVE SERVICE: CONSUMERS WANT RESULTS

One reason our current real estate model is irreparably broken is that we erroneously equate service with results. In today’s “one size no longer fits all” environment, this couldn’t be further from the truth! That shop-worn yard sign on the seller’s lawn does no good for the agent’s/company’s image. In fact, it screams that “we haven’t gotten the job done–but we’re servicing you to death in the meantime!”

You’re probably saying, “‘Julie, this is the way we’ve always helped people sell and buy real estate!” While it may be the old way, it ain’t the only way! What if we could throw out the non-productive activities (those that could be done by someone else, maybe even the seller) like showing the house, in exchange for concentrating on our professional, personal, high-level talents like negotiating and troubleshooting the sale? If you had an ironclad agreement with the seller, what would be the harm in having him show the property — (being the one to announce to potential buyers “this is the kitchen”.) especially if it could free you up to render higher-level, more personalized, more valuable skills — and get paid for them?

“What about the control issue?” you ask. Wouldn’t the seller and buyer find a sneaky way to get out of paying the fee once they got together? (I’d retort, “And they don’t now?) It’s been my experience that far fewer people haggle with professionals whose performance is incumbent upon a high-skill level (like a brain surgeon, or a CPA defending you against the IRS) especially when the skills can’t be duplicated by automation or technology. That professional has a much easier time getting paid and perfecting a niche as an invaluable, and necessary piece of the business puzzle in the new millennium.

OUR SKILL MODEL IS UPSIDE DOWN!

In fact, when you look at what we charge for (showing the house, servicing the seller, driving buyers around) it’s no wonder our industry is in a state of turmoil. If you turn the skill model upside down, we should be giving away what we’re perceived as charging for, and vice- versa! For example, instead of “throwing in” the negotiating and advocacy services and burying them deep in the added-value aspects of working with an agent, we should reframe them, prioritize them, and CHARGE for them! (Wow — what a novel concept — getting paid for our skills!) Contrarily, we should avoid, delegate, and/or reprioritize those activities (like showing property, driving buyers around, etc.) that could be performed by the seller, a licensed personal assistant, or a chauffeur. (When was the last time you saw your attorney escorting his client to court?) Then, and only then, will our skills be taken seriously and adequately compensated.

ONE SOLUTION: REINVENTING OURSELVES AS CONSULTANTS

WHAT  CONSUMERS’  WANT  AND  DON’T  WANT  FROM  US

Consumer Reality #1: Sellers don’t care about service.  If working with an agent didn’t result in a successful sale (i.e. generate results) service was valueless.

Consumer Reality #2: Our skill model is upside down.  When asked what segments of the agent’s skills/services were deemed most valuable to the consumer, 85% rated the CMA (Comparative Market Analysis) as the most vital tool—far overshadowing the obvious people-related, strengths of negotiating and counseling.  The industry lesson is that we have not properly showcased the value of one-on-one skills to the consumer; in other words, that which is not differentiated or constantly visible is discounted (like late-night negotiating with a buyer.)

Consumer Reality #3: Consumers want what they want, when they want it and will gravitate to the most cost-effective source to obtain it.  Why?  Because our “one-size-fits-all” approach to working with sellers and buyers is archaic and won’t allow consumers to access various segments of help they need in a timely fashion.  That’s why .com web start-ups are finding a receptive audience in real estate consumers and why for-sale-by-owners are burgeoning.

HOW   DO  WE  START  TO  UNBUNDLE  SERVICES?

The easiest target, fastest-growing target for unbundling services is also the most overlooked and under-serviced—FSBOs.  The buoyant real estate market of the past several years has drawn us to more lucrative targets for listings and sales.  But the prediction is that for-sale-by-owners will double in the next ten years to comprise as much as 40% of all properties for sale in the marketplace.  That’s a statistic to pay attention to.  And even if online services help FSBOs to lease signage, write ads, etc. there’s still money to be made offering those personalized services of negotiating, advocating, and troubleshooting the transaction.

DO  THE  MATH  AS  A  REAL  ESTATE  CONSULTANT

Crank out your calculator.  How many hours would it take to negotiate between the FSBO and a qualified buyer and monitor the sale to a successful closing?  My research shows a median timeframe of ten hours for these tasks.  What if the parties to the transaction were willing to pay you, say (for the purpose of example only) $150 per hour, capped at a maximum fee of $1,500?  And what if they’d give you a $500 retainer against that fee? (passed through your broker’s escrow account, of course.)  So on a 50/50 split with your broker, you’d gross $750 per FSBO  transaction as a consultant.  And if you closed just two of these assignments per month, that would be an extra $18,000 a year!  Certainly nothing to sneeze at and a professional activity that mixes well with commissioned-sales business.  (And don’t forget that satisfied FSBOs are an especially good source of recommending you to others.  After all, they’ve won, so they’re willing to help you win.)

EASE  IN  WITH  CONSULTANCY  AS  AN  ALTERNATIVE  CHOICE

 Yes, most real estate markets are booming (but predicted to soften.)  And, yes, it’s true, most of us would rather have a root canal than spend time hammering a FSBO to list.  But what if in lieu of listing, a consumer would choose to actually pay us for services rendered? Would that be worth the effort?

 Give it a try the next time you have the opportunity.  Offer it to a FSBO as an option to a formal exclusive listing (after receiving the blessing of your broker, of course.)   In my experience, you’ll receive one of two responses from the consumer:  1.  “Read my lips, I want to sell my house myself.”  Or,  2. “That’s interesting.  It could be exactly what I need.  How much will it cost?” 

WHAT  TO  CHARGE  &  HOW  TO  DECIDE

 Now for the question every one wants a panacea to—how much to charge.  The answer?  Ya gotta figure it out for yourself.  (Not what you want to hear; but truly what you NEED to hear.)   Why?  Because one of the beautiful things about being a real estate consultant is determining the TRUE value of your expertise.  We’ve long been slotted as “just another real estate agent, charging the same X percent.”  Now (using much more than fee differentiation) we can niche our market by being the best at a certain task while being rewarded in proportion to our ability—much like the CPAs and attorneys you refer business to.

 When deciding what to charge, you first must determine the:

1) skill level required to perform the service (broker, agent, licensed/unlicensed assistant?)
2) cost of any new training required to satisfactorily do the job;
3) per hour dollar-value of the person performing the task (allowing for a factor of  “lost opportunity” time that could better be spent doing or developing other higher-paid opportunities); and
4) block of time it would customarily take to perform the unbundled activity (including a factor for additional administrative or clerical assistance, cost of supplies, technology required, and more.)

ANALYZE  RESULTS

After performing this cost-analysis gyration, a broker/agent might find that it:

1) is unrealistic that a consumer would pay enough for the unbundled service to be profitable to the brokerage;
2) could work financially, but not with top producers; or
3) could make financial sense to begin the unbundling process with “troubleshooting-the-sale-services” for FSBOs, using existing administration personnel. 

The alpha and omega is the principal broker.  He/she not only makes decisions for the brokerage about whether unbundled services is a logical fit for the brokerage, but typically dictates the services offered and a range of fees for those services.

BOTTOM  LINE:  CONSUMERS  WILL  GET  WHAT  THEY  WANT

The good news is that consumers want what they want and will compensate experts who provide it to them.

The bad news is that real estate consumers want what they want and will gravitate to professionals who provide it.  And since the real estate industry is the last of  the financial industries to unbundle services, it’s merely a matter of time before empowered consumers vote with their feet, and their wallets, in the move to unbundled, results-oriented, cost-effective real estate answers.

Julie Garton-Good, DREI, is an international speaker and author of five books on real estate, most recently “The Frugal HomeOwner’s Guide to Buying, Selling, and Improving Your Home.”  The overview for her real estate consultant designation program, “Consumer-Certified Real Estate Consultant™” (C-CREC™) through the National Association of Real Estate Consultants® (NAREC®) can be found at www.juliegarton-good.com

Record streak continues for pending home sales

WASHINGTON – Oct. 1, 2009 – Pending home sales have increased for seven straight months, the longest in the series of the index which began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in August, rose 6.4 percent to 103.8 from a reading of 97.6 in July, and is 12.4 percent above August 2008 when it was 92.4. The index is at the highest level since March 2007 when it was 104.5.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said not all contracts are turning into closed sales within an expected timeframe. “The rise in pending home sales shows buyers are returning to the market and signing contracts, but deals are not necessarily closing because of long delays related to short sales, and issues regarding complex new appraisal rules,” he said. “No doubt many first-time buyers are rushing to beat the deadline for the $8,000 tax credit, which expires at the end of next month.”

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast jumped 8.2 percent to 85.3 in August and is 12.0 percent higher than August 2008. In the Midwest the index rose 3.1 percent to 90.8 in August and is 7.6 percent above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales increased 0.8 percent to an index of 104.6 and is 8.2 percent above August 2008. In the West the index surged 16.0 percent to 130.5 and is 22.3 percent above a year ago.

“There is likely to be some double counting over a span of several months because some buyers whose contracts were cancelled have found another home and signed a new contract to buy,” Yun explained. “Perhaps the real question is how many transactions are being delayed in the pipeline, and how many are being cancelled? Without historic precedents, it’s challenging to assess.”

Yun also noted that the data sample coverage for pending sales is smaller than the measurement for closed existing-home sales, so the two series will never match one for one.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said first-time buyers need to act now. “Potential first-time buyers must make a contract offer very soon to have a reasonable chance of qualifying for the tax credit,” he said. “Congress needs to extend and expand this program because it’s stimulating the economy and reducing inventory close to price stabilization points.”

McMillan said a sizable number of homebuyers already in the pipeline could be let down because of the tight deadline. “We know there is a pent-up demand because sales are below normal levels for the size of our population. The faster we absorb excess inventory, the sooner we’ll turn the corner on home prices, prevent additional families from becoming upside-down in their mortgages, and give Wall Street the confidence to extend credit to other sectors,” he said. “Each home sale pumps an additional $63,000 into the economy through related goods and services, so the benefits of extending and expanding the tax credit far outweigh the costs.”

Yun said the forecast for home sales and prices depends very much on whether a tax credit is extended. “All we can say for certain is sales will decline when the tax credit expires because we are not yet on a self-sustaining recovery path. It also raises a risk of a double-dip recession,” he said. “Extending and expanding the tax credit is the best tool in our arsenal to encourage financially qualified buyers to stimulate the economy and help reduce the budget deficit.”

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in 2Q 2009

2Q existing-home sales rise in most states, says NAR

ORLANDO, Fla. – Aug. 12, 2009 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 23 percent in second quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 43,125 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 35,008 existing homes sold. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to FAR.

Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the second quarter rose 29 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the third consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.

Statewide sales activity in 2Q 2009 also increased over 1Q 2009’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 2Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 37.2 percent over the 1Q 2009 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 2Q 2009 increased 45.3 percent over the 1Q 2009 level.

“In spite of the challenges with the economy, most people – 83 percent – still believe that buying a home is a good financial decision, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR),” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM, CRE, a broker and director of investment sales with Colliers Arnold in Orlando. (CCIM stands for Certified Commercial Investment Member and CRE is the Counselor of Real Estate designation). “Many homebuyers are realizing that this is the time to buy – with a good selection of housing inventory, affordable pricing and low mortgage rates.

“In fact, three-fourths of those responding to the 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey said they think now is a good time to purchase a home, a number that has increased steadily the past two years,” she says. “However, providing solid financing options for homebuyers is key to returning stability to the housing market, and buyers also need programs that help with downpayment and closing costs. That’s why the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and other programs enabling eligible buyers to access that tax credit for downpayment or closing costs are so important – programs like the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program.”

Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the second quarter compared to the same three-month period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $143,600 in the second quarter; a year earlier, it was $203,200 for a decrease of 29 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-home median sales price was 1.8 percent higher than 1Q’s statewide existing-home median sales price of $141,000. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 14,742 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 11,459 in 2Q 2008 for a 29 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $111,100 for the three-month period; in 2Q 2008, it was $179,800 for a decrease of 38 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-condo median sales price was almost 1 percent higher 1Q’s statewide existing-condo median sales price of $110,100.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.03 percent in 2Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 6.09 percent.

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

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Bernanke: Economy on pace for ‘09 turnaround

WASHINGTON – June 5, 2009 – The pace of economic contraction is slowing, indicating the economy could bottom out and then turn up later this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the House Budget Committee on June 3. He cited recent reports, including a flattening out of the decline in consumer spending and signs of a bottom in the housing market.

Bernanke said the economy “has contracted sharply since last fall, with real gross domestic product [GDP] having dropped at an average annual rate of about 6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year,” Bernanke told the committee. He said 6 million jobs have been lost since the downturn began, and recent labor market information “suggests that sizable jobs losses and further increases in unemployment are likely over the next few months.”

Bernanke said consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of 2008, has been “roughly flat” so far in 2009, and “consumer sentiment has improved.” He also said the Obama Administration’s economic stimulus could boost spending. However, the Fed chairman said a weak job market, the loss of housing wealth, and tight credit conditions could hamper consumer spending, which would be a key component of any recovery.

“Making Progress”

The Fed chairman said businesses “remain very cautious and continue to reduce their workforces and capital investments. On a more positive note, firms are making progress in shedding the unwanted inventories that they accumulated following last fall’s sharp downturn in sales.”

Bernanke said the Fed continues to believe economic activity will turn up later this year, based on improvements in consumer spending and housing demand supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus and stabilization in foreign economic activity. Inflation is likely to remain low over the next year, Bernanke said.

However, he warned that the forecast is dependent on continuing improvement in credit markets, and he said that “even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, with unemployment continuing to rise even after the economy turns around.

Concerns about the job market were heightened by Wednesday’s release of the ADP National Employment Report. The private sector report, which has become more closely watched in recent months, said employment decreased by 532,000 in May, vs. a revised decline of 545,000 jobs in April.

While the ADP report showed a slight improvement, it was “another in a list of ‘less bad’ economic reports,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management. “We do believe that the market expectations are shifting from simple survival to sustainability, so less bad is not good enough.”

Copyright © 2009 The McGraw-Hill Cos., Business Week Online, Phil Mintz. All rights reserved. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 
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Prospects for Florida’s recovery heat up, economists say

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – May 5, 2009 – After two long years of recession, economists are beginning to see signs that the economy’s recovery is finally in sight. South Florida home sales are picking up, Wall Street has staged some solid rallies and even consumer confidence is rising.

But the road to recovery will be uneven. Economists say that an uptick in business spending will lead the way, followed by federal government stimulus projects that will create some jobs. Consumers, unfortunately, are likely to be the last to see good times return, because widespread unemployment – which is now just a notch below 10 percent – won’t start to go down until after the recovery is well under way.

It has been rough, but economists say it’s always that way for Florida.

“It performs better in good times, but during bad times, in recessions, it is one of the worst performing states in the nation,” said Moody’s Economy.com economist Chris Lafakis. “And during times of expansion it is one of the best.”

Some experts say they already see the early signs of such progress.

“The negative numbers just start getting smaller or they stop falling or they fall at a slower rate,” said SunTrust Chief Economist Gregory Miller. It’s like you tumbled out of a boat a while ago and “now we’re at the stage of swimming back to the surface.”

Other economists agree that the worst may be over as soon as this summer. Consumers surely have had enough, judging by the strong jump in Floridians’ consumer confidence this month.

Here’s how economists say the state will find its way out of the slump:

Business-led recovery

Economists say the recovery will begin with an increase in business capital spending, as companies rebuild inventories or upgrade technology or send business travelers back out on the road.

At some South Florida companies, capital spending already has increased and begun to pay off. Last year, Stress Free Corporate Housing, which provides temporary living arrangements for executives, says the audio-visual equipment it installed in its new Weston office is helping to bring in new business.

The firm wanted to hold employee conferences and save on travel expenses. But it also began using the equipment for Webinars – seminars via the Internet – for its clients.

President and Chief Executive Officer Darin Karp said his firm is about to sign a deal with a Fortune 500 company to provide temporary housing for executives from Asia and the Middle East who need to come to Florida for training.

“We’re definitely seeing glimmers of hope off the first quarter and the beginning of this quarter,” Karp said. “We have some big stuff on our plate, and it’s attributed to doing the Webinars.”

Stimulus spending

An increase in government spending is expected in the fourth quarter, as states and cities pump out the $787 billion in federal stimulus money to build roads and other projects. That influx of cash will lead to more jobs, at least in construction.

Even though the stimulus law was enacted in February, government is still crafting detailed plans and regulations for the federal package, so it’s unclear precisely how many millions will be earmarked for Florida.

“We will begin to see some impact of the stimulus legislation in the last quarter of this year,” said economist Antonio Villamil, dean of the School of Business at St. Thomas University.

Confidence rises

Consumer confidence – a measure of how willing people are to spend on big-ticket items – is already rising. The University of Florida consumer confidence survey issued earlier this week showed the index jumped to 71 in April, up from 65 in March, which is close to the low reached during the last recession in 1991.

The importance of the jump is that consumer confidence is a forward-looking economic indicator, one that is often a sign that consumer spending will rise, too.

Employment to lag

Employment rates aren’t expected to rise until recovery of other sectors is under way. Only after growth returns in the overall economy will businesses be comfortable enough to begin to create jobs again. Employment is key to consumers’ recovery. Don’t look for consumer spending to increase until after employment stabilizes, economists say.

“Every business cycle is unique, but they get going in fits and starts,” said economist Manuel Lasaga, president of Strategic Information Analysis in Miami. “This [recovery] will be weaker than normal.” Strong growth, he said, won’t appear until 2010.

And some sectors seem to be hurt so badly, their recovery is not at hand. Surely, housing remains deeply troubled. Manufacturing, too, is waiting for signs of recovery.

“We’re not seeing that [any increase in demand] yet frankly,” said Tom Kennedy, a CPA who is chairman of the South Florida Manufacturers Association. Kennedy is controller of R.L. Schreiber in Pompano Beach, which produces food products for the food service industry. The credit crunch, he said, is making the business environment even more difficult.

When will it end? The economy should begin to pull out of recession around the end of summer, according to several economists. At the latest, look for it early next year, others say.

“We are in the fourth phase of the recession,” said SunTrust’s Miller. That’s the pre-recovery phase, he said. Next is the turnaround.

It’s a little early yet, and the signs are still faint.

“You really have to look long and hard to find any signs of strength in the economy,” said Mark Vitner, Wachovia’s senior economist. “But it’s not so hard to find areas where the economy had been in a free fall and now is just merely declining.”

For those businesses looking forward to the turnaround, they’ve set their sights on year’s end.

“People are getting new budgets for purchasing at the end of the third quarter, the fourth quarter. A lot of lights are coming on,” said Joel Ledlow, chief executive officer of ScheduAll, a Hollywood firm that produces management software systems for broadcasters and media. “People are saying they have cut about as much as they can cut. Now they’re ready for some very strategic investments.”

Copyright © 2009 Sun Sentinel, Fort Lauderdale, Fla., Harriet Johnson Brackey. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.