The drop means the number of people losing their homes will start to fall. But some pain from the crisis is sure to persist. Because millions of people are already in foreclosure, deeply discounted houses will put pressure on home prices for years.

“Housing is on a path to recovery,” said Mike Larson, a real estate analyst with Weiss Research. “It’s going to be a very long, gradual process.”

In high-foreclosure cities like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami, homes have lost roughly half their values from their peaks. But a report Friday from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed Nevada, Arizona and Florida had some of the biggest declines in new delinquencies.

The figures probably mark “the beginning of the end” of the crisis, said Jay Brinkmann, the trade group’s chief economist.

However, more than 15 percent of homeowners with a mortgage have missed at least one payment or are in foreclosure, a record. Worse, nearly half of all delinquent borrowers were at least three months behind on their payments, up from a typical level of less than 20 percent.

“The bad news is that we still have a big problem,” Brinkmann said. “The good news is it looks like it may not get much bigger.”

That’s because the percentage of borrowers who missed just one payment on their home loans fell to 3.6 percent in the October-to-December quarter from 3.8 percent in the third quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That decline was even more surprising because delinquencies usually rise at that time of year due to higher heating bills and holiday spending.

In another encouraging sign, the number of borrowers who had missed at least one payment but were not yet in foreclosure also fell for the first time since the beginning of 2007.

Banks are delaying the foreclosure process, traditionally between four and six months, as they evaluate borrowers for help under the Obama administration’s $75 billion mortgage-relief effort. It lowers borrowers payments to as low as 2 percent for five years and extends loan terms to as long as 40 years.

But experts warn that hundreds of thousands of borrowers will not be eligible or will not complete the process. So far, only 116,300 borrowers out of 1 million who enrolled have had the terms of their mortgages changed permanently.

Despite the government’s efforts, there may be 6 million foreclosed homes that are put on the market over the next three years, according to Barclays Capital.

Timing is key. If banks unload them suddenly, “it will be much more detrimental to the housing recovery than if it’s a slow, gradual bleed,” said Michelle Meyer, a Barclays economist.

On Friday, Obama announced that housing agencies in the five hardest-hit states of Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan and Nevada will receive $1.5 billion in financial rescue money.

It will go to local programs to help unemployed homeowners, “under water” borrowers who owe more than their home is worth, or to give lenders incentives to assist borrowers with second mortgages. The programs will need to be approved by the Treasury Department.

“Government alone can’t solve this problem,” Obama said. “But government can make a difference.”

In a briefing with reporters, administration officials acknowledged that the effort was just a small one. But they said it could help develop broader national solutions. “What we’re trying to do here is foster innovation,” said Herbert Allison, an assistant Treasury secretary.

CNL occupies two towers that flank Orlando City Hall downtown.

Orlando-based CNL Financial Group and Sydney’s Macquarie Group have joined forces for the first time to establish a new global REIT, CNL Macquarie Global Growth Trust Inc., which will pursue opportunities in just about every sector of commercial real estate in various areas around the world. The partners can afford to think big, as the proposed total offering for the REIT is $1.5 billion.

CNL going on a global buying spree

ORLANDO, Fla. – Oct. 27, 2009 – CNL Macquarie Global Growth Trust Inc. announced its first public offering of $1.5 billion common shares for a new real-estate investment trust, with CNL Financial Group of Orlando serving as managing dealer.

The move marks the first partnership between the CNL group and the Australian-based Macquarie Capital Funds, an affiliate of Macquarie Group Limited, which has more than $189 billion of global assets.

Unlike traditional income-driven trusts, the product announced Thursday is growth-oriented rather than income driven, said a spokesman for CNL. The focus will be on acquiring commercial office, retail, industrial and multifamily properties that may “require repositioning or redevelopment” and that may face financial deadlines or be in markets with growth potential, according to a statement released by CNL on Thursday morning.

As much as 30 percent of those assets are likely to be outside of the United States.

University of Central Florida real estate Professor Randy Anderson said the strategy of pursuing well-placed assets for less than replacement costs is the correct move at this time.

“Right now it’s really important to buy right and buy when the assets are depressed,” Anderson said.

It’s key, he added, to be well-funded with a long view of staying with a property seven to 10 years instead of looking to sell in two or three years.

“You can’t be a musical-chair kind of investor,” he said.

Another consideration is going with an experienced team of investors who know to steer away bargain properties that don’t make sense in the long run, he added. CNL has had an “uncanny” ability to buy those strategic assets when the properties are out of favor, Anderson said.

Founded in Orlando in 1973, CNL Financial group has formed or acquired companies with more than $23 billion in assets, including hotel, retail, restaurant, and senior housing. Macquarie Group Limited, with headquarters in Sydney, was founded in 1969 and operates in more than 70 office locations in 26 countries.

Copyright © 2009 The Orlando Sentinel, Fla., Mary Shanklin. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

 

Florida’s consumer confidence rises as economic fears ease

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Sept. 30, 2009 – Belief that a national economic recovery is under way boosted Florida’s consumer confidence three points to 74 in September, according to a new University of Florida survey.

“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” says Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “Once again, they have surprised us with a higher-than-expected index.”

This month’s three-point rise follows a four-point revised increase in August. Of the five components that make up September’s index, three rose, one declined and one was unchanged. Perceptions of personal finances now compared with a year ago remained unchanged at 44, only five points above its all-time low of 39 in December. Expectations about personal finances a year from now fell three points to 81.

In contrast, perceptions of U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose three points to 75, while expectations about economic conditions over the next five years rose five points to 86. Perceptions of whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items, such as appliances and cars, rose nine points to 84.

“It is worth noting that the two index components that gauge perceptions of personal finances both now and in the future are flat or down,” McCarty says. “All of the increase is in perceptions of future economic conditions, and in the perception that if you have the money, it’s a good time to buy.”

There are some signs that the economy is improving, he says.

Once again, the median price of a single-family home is virtually flat compared with the previous month, and up for the year, suggesting that housing prices in many areas of Florida have bottomed out, McCarty says. Although foreclosures are still high, the rate seems to be declining.

In other good news, inflation and, in particular, gas prices remain low overall compared with a year ago, McCarty says. In the past few years, gas prices have dominated the consumer confidence index. In addition, the stock market is still up for the year and at least for now appears stable.

“On the negative side, unemployment remains at 10.7 percent for Florida,” McCarty says. “This number is not expected to improve much until next year, and it could still get worse. Florida lost population this past year and could do so again as the underlying problems that prevent people from moving are still in place.”

Tourisms both domestically and internationally also are down as consumers trim discretionary spending, McCarty said. Programs such as Cash for Clunkers at least temporarily lifted retail sales, but sales tax revenues in Florida have dropped 10 percent from a year ago.

“In the near term, we expect consumer confidence to decline at least a point or two as the holiday season nears and stimulus programs like Cash for Clunkers and rebates for first-time home buyers expire,” he says. “The discussion about health care reform will be at center stage this fall, and may affect confidence if the plans involve increased payments from the middle class.”

Also of economic concern is that, at some point, extended unemployment benefits will run out, putting more pressure on the unemployed. In the long term, consumers need to be prepared for the inevitable drawing back of stimulus money from the economy, McCarty says.

The U.S. government effectively printed money to avoid a depression, and at some point most of the money will have to be withdrawn from the economy to avoid inflation and a very weak dollar, McCarty says. When that happens, interest rates will rise dramatically.

“We also have to think about how the Florida economy will adjust moving forward,” he says. “It is likely that discussions about off-shore drilling will receive much more attention as Florida looks for industries to replace those dependent on population growth.”

The research center conducts the Florida Consumer Attitude Survey monthly. Respondents are 18 or older and live in households telephoned randomly. The preliminary index for September was conducted from 412 responses. The index is benchmarked to 1966, so a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year.

© 2009 Florida Realtors®

July new U.S. home sales up 9.6 percent

WASHINGTON (AP) – Aug. 26, 2009 – Sales of new U.S. homes surged 9.6 percent in July, another sign the housing market is climbing back from the historic bottom it reached early this year. The monthly increase was greater than expected and the fourth in a row and it was spurred by a decrease in the price of homes.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that sales rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 433,000 from an upwardly revised June rate of 395,000. Sales are now up more than 30 percent from the bottom in January, but are still off from the frenzied peak four years ago.

The median sales price of $210,100, however, was down slightly from $210,400 in June and was off 11.5 percent from year-ago levels. Prices are still up from March’s low of $205,100.

Last month’s sales pace was the strongest since September and exceeded the forecasts of economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters, who expected a pace of 390,000 units.

In an effect similar to the government’s “Cash for Clunkers” program to stimulate auto sales, homebuyers are rushing to take advantage of a federal tax credit that covers 10 percent of the home price, or up to $8,000, for first-time owners. Home sales must be completed by the end of November for buyers to qualify.

Builders and real estate agents are pressing Congress for that credit to be extended. If it isn’t, sales could reverse their upward trend. But still, the economy is healthier now, so sales are unlikely to fall back to the lows of last winter, even if the credit is discontinued, said Wells Fargo economist Adam York,

“People don’t have the sense of panic and dread,” about their futures, he said.

As sales rise, that’s likely to make builders more confident about getting going on new projects, and that’s likely to eventually lead to more jobs in the construction industry, which has been hurt badly by the recession.

“These are crucial elements of a sustainable recovery,” David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a research note.

Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs lasting one year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

There were 271,000 new homes for sale at the end of July, down more than 3 percent from May. At the current sales pace, that represents 7.5 months of supply – the lowest since April 2007. The decline means builders have scaled back construction to the point where supply and demand are coming into balance.

Copyright © 2009 The Associated Press, Alan Zibel, AP real estate writer.

Florida’s existing home, condo sales up in 2Q 2009

2Q existing-home sales rise in most states, says NAR

ORLANDO, Fla. – Aug. 12, 2009 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 23 percent in second quarter 2009 compared to the same period a year earlier, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 43,125 existing homes sold statewide in 2Q 2009; during the same period the year before, a total of 35,008 existing homes sold. It marks the fourth consecutive quarter that Florida has seen higher existing year-to-year home sales, according to FAR.

Sales of existing condominiums statewide in the second quarter rose 29 percent compared to the same time the previous year. This marks the third consecutive quarter for increased statewide sales in both the existing home and condo markets compared to year-ago levels.

Statewide sales activity in 2Q 2009 also increased over 1Q 2009’s sales figure in both the existing home and existing condo markets, FAR records show. For 2Q 2009, statewide sales of existing homes rose 37.2 percent over the 1Q 2009 figure; existing condo sales statewide in 2Q 2009 increased 45.3 percent over the 1Q 2009 level.

“In spite of the challenges with the economy, most people – 83 percent – still believe that buying a home is a good financial decision, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR),” says 2009 FAR President Cynthia Shelton, CCIM, CRE, a broker and director of investment sales with Colliers Arnold in Orlando. (CCIM stands for Certified Commercial Investment Member and CRE is the Counselor of Real Estate designation). “Many homebuyers are realizing that this is the time to buy – with a good selection of housing inventory, affordable pricing and low mortgage rates.

“In fact, three-fourths of those responding to the 2009 National Housing Pulse Survey said they think now is a good time to purchase a home, a number that has increased steadily the past two years,” she says. “However, providing solid financing options for homebuyers is key to returning stability to the housing market, and buyers also need programs that help with downpayment and closing costs. That’s why the federal $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit and other programs enabling eligible buyers to access that tax credit for downpayment or closing costs are so important – programs like the Florida Homebuyer Opportunity Program.”

Sixteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the second quarter compared to the same three-month period a year earlier, while 12 MSAs showed gains in condo sales.

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $143,600 in the second quarter; a year earlier, it was $203,200 for a decrease of 29 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-home median sales price was 1.8 percent higher than 1Q’s statewide existing-home median sales price of $141,000. According to industry analysts with the National Association of Realtors® (NAR), sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 14,742 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 11,459 in 2Q 2008 for a 29 percent increase. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $111,100 for the three-month period; in 2Q 2008, it was $179,800 for a decrease of 38 percent. The 2Q 2009 statewide existing-condo median sales price was almost 1 percent higher 1Q’s statewide existing-condo median sales price of $110,100.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.03 percent in 2Q 2009; one year earlier, it averaged 6.09 percent.

© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

High-end homes: is the tide turning?

HORSHAM, Penn. – Aug. 14, 2009 – High-end homes appear to be selling better than analysts thought.

Toll Brothers (TOL), the nation’s largest luxury homebuilder, on Aug. 12 announced its first year-over-year increase in signed home contracts since 2005, suggesting that first-time buyers might not be alone in driving improving U.S. home sales.

The Horsham [Pa.]-based builder said that signed contracts in the quarter ended July 31 – though still low by historic standards – rose 3 percent, to 837, compared with the same period a year ago. But revenues fell 42 percent in the quarter, to $461.3 million. The company also said it has been able to reduce buyer incentives in several markets as demand and contract cancellations improve.

“Mood has changed”

No other major builder has matched Toll Brothers’ 3 percent increase in contracts signed, though a few reported a 2 percent improvement in the most recent quarter, said Barclays Capital analyst Megan McGrath in New York. The average quarterly decline in new home contracts for major public builders was about 14 percent, she said.

Toll Brothers attributed the improvement to low interest rates, government homebuyer incentives, the recent stock market surge, and decreased competition from smaller and midsize builders now frozen out of credit markets. “The mood has changed,” Chief Executive Robert Toll told analysts during a conference call. “Our traffic still stinks but those people that are coming in are more serious. They’re not just fishing any longer. Now, there’s fear on both sides. We fear not selling and they fear missing.”

McGrath said Toll Brothers is selling homes for an average of $582,000 – far below the multimillion-dollar price tags for the estates of the rich and famous commonly referred to as “luxury real estate.” The market for million-dollar homes is weak, but Toll Brothers’ homes are more modestly priced and generally don’t require “jumbo” mortgages. Those are loans that generally exceed $417,000. Toll said the company’s strongest markets are in the Northeast, particularly Connecticut, the New York suburbs, and New Jersey. But sales are also strong in the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.; Delaware; Raleigh, N.C.; Orlando; Northern California; and Naples, Fla.

Too soon to tell

Shares of Toll Brothers closed 14 percent higher Wednesday, at 23.42. “There are a lot of stories in the press about how poor the luxury market has been doing,” McGrath said. “Some of it is a misunderstanding about what is luxury and Toll’s actual business.”

Michael Widner, vice-president of Stifel Nicolaus Research (SF), said it’s too early to say whether Toll Brothers’ performance represents a change in the market because the small improvement in contracts signed might be a temporary blip. “If we have seen a rebound in something other than the first-time homebuyer market, this is the first real sign of it,” Widner said. “It’s a little early to celebrate too much.”

Copyright © 2009 The McGraw-Hill Cos., Prashant Gopal. All rights reserved

 
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‘Freaky’ side of real estate economics
Flat-fee brokers may put pressure on traditional commissions
Friday, June 23, 2006

By Glenn Roberts Jr.
Inman News

SAN FRANCISCO — Traditional pricing for real estate services is bound to crumble, and flat-fee brokers will likely deliver the deathblow — at least according to Steven D. Levitt, co-author of “Freakonomics,” a book that takes an unconventional approach to economics.

Levitt, who spoke to attendees Thursday at the PCBC builders’ conference and trade show at San Francisco’s Moscone Center, also said that the real estate brokerage industry is in some ways its own worst enemy, as low barriers to entry lead to proportional surges in agent population during housing market booms.

“It turns out that the median real estate agent is making the same amount of money today that they were 10 years ago, despite the fact that housing prices are up 50 to 60 to 70 percent during that time period nationwide. In the end … you’ve got to feel sorry for the real estate agents. Now, instead of selling six houses a year, the typical agent sells two or three houses. My own feeling is that if you were thinking about getting into the real estate business, I wouldn’t do it,” he said.

Such views have not won Levitt and co-author Stephen J. Dubner any popularity contests within the ranks of the National Association of Realtors trade group, Levitt readily acknowledges. Particularly because one of the chapters in the book draws parallels between real estate agents and the Ku Klux Klan. “We’re not big favorites with the National Association of Realtors right now,” he said.

But Levitt explained that the book is not intended “to imply that real estate agents are bad people in any way, shape or form,” he said. His research has raised questions, though, about whether real estate agents always seek to get the best deal for their clients.

In an analysis of 100,000 home sales in the Chicago area, Levitt found that real estate agents tend to sell their own homes for about 3 percent or so more than the selling price of their clients’ homes. When he speaks to real estate agents, he inevitably will hear a familiar range of responses, he said, such as: “Well, that’s just because we have better taste. We’re better at showing houses. We have good paint colors and that makes people want to jump in our houses and pay more.”

The research also found that real estate agents tend to leave their own homes on the market about 10 percent longer than their clients’ homes. “If they have such great taste in paint you’d think their homes would sell faster than their clients’ (homes),” he said, adding that he was not surprised by the findings.

He shared a personal story about a home he was interested in buying in the suburban Chicago area. The home had been on the market for about six or eight months, and he decided to call the listing agent directly.

“I had learned already that I didn’t want to have a buyer’s agent,” he said, since he knew that a buyer’s agent shares in the total commission paid by the seller to the listing agent. By going directly to the seller’s agent, that agent and the agent’s broker could keep all of the commission for themselves.

“I said to her, ‘I’m interested in this house and I don’t believe in buyer’s agents.’ I could hear her voice really pick up on the other side of the line.” Then, he asked a very direct question. “Can you just tell me the absolute lowest price at which the homeowner is willing to sell this house for?”

Her response, “You should be ashamed of yourself. That would be a complete violation of my client relationship to tell you any information like that and you should know better than that. It’s not right to ask me questions like that.”

Later, as the phone call came to an end, Levitt said the agent volunteered some information that led to his offer on the property: “Let me just tell you one last thing. The owner of this home is willing to sell this house for less than you can possibly imagine.”

He made an offer for $50,000 less than he had planned to offer, and the offer was accepted without any back-and-forth. “Basically, in order for that agent to put an extra $20,000 or $30,000 back in her pocket she basically stole $50,000 from her client.”

Levitt added, “When I tell this story in front of real estate agents, I always get the same reaction, completely predictably, ‘I would never, ever do something like that to my client. It’s just patently absurd.’ But you wouldn’t believe the people I interact with on a daily basis – every other real estate agent is doing this every time I turn around.”

Lately, Levitt has focused his attention on flat-fee real estate brokers that charge a flat rate for listing a home for sale in a multiple listing service. He has studied three markets, and so far has concluded that there isn’t much difference in the price that sellers get for using a flat-fee broker versus a traditional, full-service real estate broker.

“In some markets it may take 10 to 15 days longer to sell my house — in other markets I see no difference at all. In the end, if this is true, it’s really going to be bad, bad news for real estate agents, which I think is actually really good news for everybody else.

“I just don’t see how the real estate agents can maintain the level of pricing they have,” he said, referring to a commission rate that has traditionally hovered around 6 percent of the sale price of a home. “And I think that the way it will crumble is not through FSBOs (for-sale-by-owner transactions). What’s really going to be the undoing of real estate agents is going to be flat-fee brokers. It seems to me that’s a very viable option, unless (Realtors are) successful in the end in getting legislation passed which will preclude it from happening.”

Levitt said that lawyers for the National Association of Realtors asked about the source of the MLS data used in his and threatened litigation. But Laurie Janik, general counsel for the National Association of Realtors, said today, “NAR never at any time ever threatened Mr. Levitt with litigation nor did any member of my staff ever speak to him or contact him.”

And Steve Cook, a spokesman for the National Association of Realtors, said that the Realtor group has not taken any legal action against Levitt or the real estate professional who supplied the MLS data.

New doors opened to his research after the release of “Freakonomics,” Levitt said. “Suddenly, everybody wants to give me data.”