Bernanke: Economy on pace for ‘09 turnaround

WASHINGTON – June 5, 2009 – The pace of economic contraction is slowing, indicating the economy could bottom out and then turn up later this year, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told the House Budget Committee on June 3. He cited recent reports, including a flattening out of the decline in consumer spending and signs of a bottom in the housing market.

Bernanke said the economy “has contracted sharply since last fall, with real gross domestic product [GDP] having dropped at an average annual rate of about 6 percent during the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of this year,” Bernanke told the committee. He said 6 million jobs have been lost since the downturn began, and recent labor market information “suggests that sizable jobs losses and further increases in unemployment are likely over the next few months.”

Bernanke said consumer spending, which dropped sharply in the second half of 2008, has been “roughly flat” so far in 2009, and “consumer sentiment has improved.” He also said the Obama Administration’s economic stimulus could boost spending. However, the Fed chairman said a weak job market, the loss of housing wealth, and tight credit conditions could hamper consumer spending, which would be a key component of any recovery.

“Making Progress”

The Fed chairman said businesses “remain very cautious and continue to reduce their workforces and capital investments. On a more positive note, firms are making progress in shedding the unwanted inventories that they accumulated following last fall’s sharp downturn in sales.”

Bernanke said the Fed continues to believe economic activity will turn up later this year, based on improvements in consumer spending and housing demand supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus and stabilization in foreign economic activity. Inflation is likely to remain low over the next year, Bernanke said.

However, he warned that the forecast is dependent on continuing improvement in credit markets, and he said that “even after a recovery gets under way, the rate of growth of real economic activity is likely to remain below its longer-run potential for a while, with unemployment continuing to rise even after the economy turns around.

Concerns about the job market were heightened by Wednesday’s release of the ADP National Employment Report. The private sector report, which has become more closely watched in recent months, said employment decreased by 532,000 in May, vs. a revised decline of 545,000 jobs in April.

While the ADP report showed a slight improvement, it was “another in a list of ‘less bad’ economic reports,” said Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management. “We do believe that the market expectations are shifting from simple survival to sustainability, so less bad is not good enough.”

Copyright © 2009 The McGraw-Hill Cos., Business Week Online, Phil Mintz. All rights reserved. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

 Mortgage rates drop to lowest level since January

WASHINGTON – Dec. 5, 2008 – Rates on 30-year mortgages plunged this week to the lowest level since January after the government launched a sweeping new effort to aid the U.S. housing market.

Mortgage finance giant Freddie Mac reported Thursday that average rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to 5.53 percent in the largest one-week drop in 27 years. That was down from 5.97 percent last week, and the lowest since the week of Jan. 24, when it was at 5.48 percent.

Further drops could be on the way if the government launches an industry-backed plan to lower the rate on a 30-year mortgage to 4.5 percent by spending hundreds of billions to buy mortgage-backed securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

That would follow an effort announced last week by the Federal Reserve, which is planning to purchase up to $600 billion of mortgage-backed securities and other debt issued by Fannie and Freddie and the Federal Home Loan Banks. Those institutions don’t make loans directly to consumers, but provide money to the mortgage market by packaging loans into investments.

The Fed’s move caused rates to immediately drop by about a half-point, and many in the real estate industry hope rates will keep dropping as the government increases efforts to battle the credit crisis.

Rates “are now almost a full percentage point lower since the last week in October,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Frank Nothaft said in a statement.

Bringing mortgage rates down is positive, but it “doesn’t help people that currently have unaffordable mortgages because it doesn’t help them refinance,” Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., said Thursday. “Low interest rates help some consumers, but the ones that really need help and can’t refinance are not helped.”

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the government can take steps to improve the functioning of the mortgage market, which would allow more people to secure home loans and help stabilize the housing market. Currently, he said, “the mortgage market is dysfunctional.”

Mortgage rates are sinking as Treasury yields, some of the most sensitive barometers of investor sentiment, have dropped to record lows this week as a torrent of bad economic news continues. But as investors send yields down, they’re also influencing the economy – driving interest rates so low that savers get punished and borrowers get a break.

Treasury buying has picked up and sent yields down because the economy is in a recession that investors believe will be long and deep.

Consumers already are taking advantage of the situation. New mortgage applications more than doubled last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey released Wednesday. Refinance volume more than tripled, and made up nearly 70 percent of all applications.

Rates on other types of mortgages also fell, according to Freddie Mac’s survey. For 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, rates averaged 5.33 percent, down from 5.74 percent last week.

Rates on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages dipped to 5.77 percent, compared with 5.86 percent last week. Rates on one-year, adjustable-rate mortgages dropped to 5.02 percent, from 5.18 percent last week.

The rates do not include add-on fees known as points. The nationwide fee for 30-year and 15-year mortgages averaged 0.7 point last week. The fee on five-year, adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.6 point, while the fee on one-year adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.5 point.

A year ago, the nationwide average rate on 30-year mortgages stood at 5.96 percent, 15-year mortgage rates averaged 5.65 percent, five-year adjustable-rate mortgages were at 5.75 percent, and one-year adjustable-rate mortgages stood at 5.46 percent.

The rate on Fannie Mae 30-year mortgage-backed securities fell to about 4.25 percent Thursday, said Kevin Giddis, managing director of fixed income at Morgan Keegan. That is down from about 5.5 percent in mid-November.

Fears of a protracted recession are slamming Treasury yield, which is good for borrowers with mortgage rates tied to Treasurys, but bad for people invested in money market funds that have been buying up Treasurys for safety.

Treasury prices fell again on Thursday, sending rates to new record lows, as the Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 200 points. The 10-year Treasury note yielded 2.56 percent, down from 2.67 percent late Wednesday, while the 30-year Treasury bond yielded 3.07 percent, down from 3.17 percent.

Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press, Alan Zibel (AP Real Estate Writer). All rights reserved

ORLANDO, Fla., Nov. 18, 2008 – Sales of existing single-family homes in Florida rose 5 percent in third quarter 2008 compared to the same period last year, according to the latest housing statistics from the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). A total of 33,203 existing homes sold statewide in 3Q 2008; during the same period last year, a total of 31,558 existing homes sold statewide.

“Coming on the heels of positive sales activity in September, Florida’s existing home sales are once again above year-ago levels in the third quarter,” says 2008 FAR President Chuck Bonfiglio. “Despite lending restrictions and the difficulties of finding affordable credit, we’re seeing buyers take advantage of homeownership opportunities in the current market – buyers who want to make a long-term investment in their future. And, more than ever, people are turning to Florida Realtors to find the professional expertise, knowledge and friendly guidance they need to make the complex process of buying or selling their home go more easily and smoothly.”

The statewide existing-home median sales price was $185,400 in the third quarter; a year ago, it was $233,200 for a decrease of 20 percent. In 2003, the third-quarter statewide median sales price was $163,700, which reflects an increase of about 13.3 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.

Twelve of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in the third quarter compared to the same three-month-period a year ago, while seven MSAs also showed gains in condo sales. A number of local markets have reported increased sales activity over the past few months, according to FAR.

Florida Realtors continued to report positive signs for the state’s housing sector in the third quarter, including an increase in pending home sales (based on contracts signed but not closed) and a slower rate of expansion of inventory levels in some areas.

To gain insight into current trends in Florida’s real estate industry, the University of Florida’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. According to the third quarter 2008 survey, the investment outlook for various types of properties remains steady. “People who have responded to our surveys have not lost their faith in Florida as a place to be and a place to invest,” said Dr. Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. “We have 40 pages of comments from our respondents, and although the dominant theme is the disruption of financing, perhaps the second theme, as one person put it, is people being on the sidelines with full pads and helmets just waiting to jump back in.”

Over the long term, Florida stands to benefit from the migration of new residents, particularly as baby boomers age, Archer said, adding that the Sunshine State’s mild climate and outdoor amenities continue to make it an attractive retirement destination.

In the year-to-year quarterly comparison for condo sales, 9,472 units sold statewide for the quarter compared to 9,680 in 3Q 2007 for a 2 percent decrease. The statewide existing-condo median sales price was $160,000 for the three-month period; in 3Q 2007, it was $196,000 for an 18 percent decrease.

Continuing low mortgage rates remain another favorable influence on the housing sector. According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.32 percent in third quarter 2008; one year earlier, it averaged 6.55 percent.

The latest industry outlook from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) cautions the housing sector likely faces disruptions from the still-stabilizing credit market. “Inventory remains high, and price declines are pressuring owners,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Additional housing stimulus would stabilize prices more quickly, which in turn would bring faster stability to Wall Street. Removing the repayment feature on the first-time buyer tax credit and permanently raising loan limits would bring more buyers into the market and further reduce inventory.”

© 2008 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

(This is an interesting Graph that Highlights Foreclosure Rates in Different Spots Around the Country..) 

Government launches sweeping new loan aid effort

WASHINGTON – Nov. 12, 2008 – The government and the mortgage industry are launching the most sweeping effort yet to help troubled homeowners by speeding up the process for renegotiating hundreds of thousands of delinquent loans held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which seized control of the two mortgage finance companies in September, announced the plan Tuesday along with other government and industry officials, including Hope Now, an alliance of mortgage companies organized by the Bush administration last year.

“Foreclosures hurt families, their neighbors, whole communities and the overall housing market,” said James Lockhart, the housing finance agency’s director. “We need to stop this downward spiral.”

The plan could have tremendous importance because Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee nearly 31 million U.S. mortgages, or nearly six of every 10 outstanding. Still, government officials did not have an estimate of how many people would qualify for the new program.

Officials hope the new approach, which goes into effect Dec. 15., will become a model for loan servicing companies, which collect mortgage payments and distribute them to investors. These companies have been roundly criticized for being slow to respond to a surge in defaults.

To qualify, borrowers would have to be at least three months behind on their home loans, and would need to owe 90 percent or more than the home is currently worth. Investors who do not occupy their homes would be excluded, as would borrowers who have filed for bankruptcy.

Borrowers would get help in several ways: The interest rate would be reduced so that borrowers would not pay more than 38 percent of their income on housing expenses. Another option is for loans to be extended from 30 years to 40 years, and for some of the principal amount to be deferred interest-free.

While lenders have beefed up their efforts to aid borrowers over the past year, their earlier efforts have not kept up with the worst housing recession in decades.

And critics were quick to pour water on the latest plan.

“Instead of a massive foreclosure prevention program, we wait for a homeowner to be in a failing position before doing anything, which often is too late,” said John Taylor, president and CEO of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition.

“It’s been the foreclosures that have been driving the economic downturn and we’ve been saying that for 13 months now. To stop the bleeding is to end foreclosures,” he continued. “But now that so many other sectors in the economy have fallen, I’m not sure if we’re past the point of no return. It’s appalling that they don’t get it.”

More than 4 million American homeowners, or 9 percent of borrowers with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of June, according to the most recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Indeed, Tuesday’s announcement comes too late for Troy Courtney, a 44-year-old San Francisco police officer.

He moved out of his home in Mill Valley, Calif., at the start of this month – taking his children, three dogs and one cat with him – after failing at several to attempts to get a loan modification or a short sale – where the lender agrees to receive less than the loan is worth.

Courtney worked overtime and tapped into his retirement account to try to catch up with two loans on his home. But in the end he couldn’t convince Countrywide Financial, which managed the loan for Wells Fargo, to modify the loan.

“I feel like I missed the boat,” he said of the new efforts to help more homeowners. “I’m just mad at the whole system.”

One reason the problem has been so tough to solve for borrowers like Courtney is that the vast majority of troubled loans were packaged into complicated investments that have proven extremely difficult to unwind.

Deutsche Bank estimates more than 80 percent of the $1.8 trillion in outstanding troubled loans have been packaged and sold in slices to investors around the world. And it appears the majority of those loans will not be helped by the new plan.

The remaining 20 percent are “whole loans,” which are easier to modify because they have only one owner.

Nevertheless, Tuesday’s announcement coupled with recent and more aggressive strategies from the major retail banks are important steps to fix the housing crisis. After more than a year of slow and weak initiatives, there appears to be a serious effort to get at the heart of the credit crisis: falling U.S. home prices and record foreclosures.

Citigroup announced late Monday it is halting foreclosures for borrowers who live in their own homes, have decent incomes and stand a good chance of making lowered mortgage payments. The New York-based banking giant also said it is also working to expand the program to include mortgages for which the bank collects payments but does not own.

Additionally, over the next six months, Citi plans to reach out to 500,000 homeowners who are not currently behind on their mortgage payments, but who are on the verge of falling behind. This represents about one-third of all the mortgages that Citigroup owns, the bank said.

Citi plans to devote a team of 600 salespeople to assist the targeted borrowers by adjusting their rates, reducing principal or increasing the term of the loan.

Late last month, JPMorgan Chase & Co expanded its mortgage modification program to an estimated $70 billion in loans, which could aid as many as 400,000 customers. The New York-based bank has already modified about $40 billion in mortgages, helping 250,000 customers since early 2007.

Bank of America, meanwhile, has said that starting Dec. 1, it will modify an estimated 400,000 loans held by newly acquired Countrywide Financial Corp. as part of an $8.4 billion legal settlement reached with 11 states in early October.

Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press, Alan Zibel (AP Real Estate Writer). All rights reserved

Today’s Rates: 

 30-Year Fixed Mortgage- 5.75%

15-Year Fixed Mortgage – 5.27%

5/1 ARM – 5.67%

30-Year Fixed Jumbo Mortage- 7.16%

5/1 Jumbo ARM- 6.36%

When one door closes, one typically opens. With the slumping real estate, but showing signs of vitality, there is a real opportunity to finally buy that vacation home on the beach for a reasonable price. Also, due to the slowing economy the Federal government has put Sarasota and Bradenton Real Estate Homeowners in a position to refinance their mortgage and pay less interest, lowering mortgage payments. Shirley International Realty Inc. is licensed  as a mortgage broker & can refinance your mortgage. Listed below are the benefits of a refinance. 

Put Cash in Your Pocket:

 Refinancing your mortgage takes the equity in your home and puts cash in your pocket. In a slumping market many homeowners are looking to protect their cash by using the equity in their home to refinance, putting that cash in their pocket while simultaneously locking in a lower rate, lowering monthly payments.

Lower Your Monthly Payments:

When you refinance your mortgage to a new lower rate, less interest paid on your mortgage will result in lower monthly payments.. This is a great tool for investors to increase their cash-flow capabilities and non-investor homeowners to save on outgoing expenses.

Shorten the Length of Your Mortgage:

When you refinance, you have the option to shorten the length of your mortgage and establish a new payment plan. For example, if you are on a 30-year conventional fully amortized payment plan, it may be in your best interest to shorten that plan to a 15-year payoff plan. This may not be congruent with lowering your monthly payment, but in the long run paying less in interest will save you money.

Exchange an Adjustable-Rate for a Fixed-Rate:

This is where the real opportunity is, given our current market conditions, to save some money. Take advantage of the recent basis point cut by locking in today’s low fixed rates, compared to the adjustable, unstable, and unpredictable movement of future rate changes.

Say Goodbye to PMI!

If your loan to value is any higher than 80%, you are probably suffering from Private Mortgage Insurance. This is a fee added to your monthly mortgage payments, penalizing you for not putting at least 20% cash down on your mortgage when you purchased your property. If you have that 20% equity currently in your home, your refinance will eliminate that PMI payment and save you $100-$500/month.

Your home is like a Cash Cow.. Talk to Shirley International Realty Inc. about reorganizing your mortgage to tap into that milk!

Justin